Let me begin by saying that I am a staunch supporter of Dak Prescott and I firmly believe that the Dallas Cowboys made a mistake not getting a long term deal done before the July 15th deadline. Despite my opinion on the subject, I will not be so arrogant as to assume that I could not be wrong about it. After all, I have been wrong about many things before and so to have a lot of people that know a lot more about football than I do. So, putting my personal opinions on the subject aside, I would like to take a purely objective look at the Dak Prescott contract situation (or lack thereof) and allow you the reader to decide what is right or what is wrong. If you have already made up your mind about all this, don’t bother reading any further. However, if you have not quite made up your mind or if you consider yourself to be somewhat open minded; Then, I invite you to read on, consider the merits and drawbacks of the long term contract, and draw your own conclusion from there.
Before I dive in, it is important to establish a relative worth or value as a parameter for our subject Dak Prescott. It is difficult to agree on a consensus here but in keeping with the goal of objectivity, it is fair to acknowledge that Dak Prescott is at the very least a tier below the elite young QB’s like Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes. It is also a fair assessment to conclude that he is at minimum, an above average starting quarterback. For the purposes of this exercise, I am grouping him with his 2016 Draft cohorts Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. Fans will argue back and forth which of those players is better. That argument has shifted every single year since their rookie seasons and will likely continue to do so for another decade or more but I refuse to go down that path here today. Instead, I will simply ascertain that within reason it should be generally agreed upon that these three are within the same range. Therefore, long term contract compensation should be measured on relatively equal terms for each of them. Now that we have established that, let me explore the various questions and concerns over signing Dak Prescott to a long term deal and objectively look at both sides of the argument.
Is it worth it to pay a QB so much money?
This question has been posed frequently of late as it has been noted that no team during the salary cap era has won a Super Bowl with the top paid QB. The obvious correlation implied here is that paying too much money at one position does not allow a team to sufficiently build a good enough roster to win championships. The popular trend in the NFL recently has been to draft a good young quarterback who comes cheap on their rookie deal (like say… Dak Prescott) and use the extra salary cap space to build a championship team around him. That worked out well for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks and for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Unfortunately, it is not that easy to find a great quarterback in the draft so many teams end up having to pay heavily to improve that position. It should be mentioned that although no top paid quarterback has gone on to win the Super Bowl as of yet, the sample size is small and the theory based on that fact could be blown up completely if a single top paid QB does eventually win a championship. Also consider that several quarterbacks among the top paid at their position, but not at the very top, did win Super Bowls such as Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger. Additionaly, guys like Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo played in the Super Bowl and came very close to winning. Traditionally though, the reason quarterbacks contracts are so expensive is not just positional value but because of the high demand. That may not hold true anymore and a new trend could be developing in the NFL. Partly due to the abundance of young quarterbacks that can step in as rookies and play right away as well as the unusually high amount of veterans available this season, the supply of capable QB’s has increased in the NFL. Shockingly, and likely as a result of the unusually high supply, a number of quality free agent quarterbacks such as Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Teddy Bridgewater, and even Tom Brady signed deals for far less than expected this offseason. Most of those were one year deals so many of those players will be available once again next year. The reason for that may be related to COVID-19 or simply because of the various ages, injury, or character concerns of each of those players but still, the well is not as dry as it has been in recent years. Maybe the smart play is to pay half the price to a solid game manager like Teddy Bridgewater or gamble on a former MVP like Cam Newton for virtually nothing which then allows you more roster flexibility in the short term.
Is Dak worth the money?
Whether or not you agree if it is worth it to pay top dollars for a quarterback, there are some players that without question justify the cost. Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, to name a few but that is a very short list. Most other quarterbacks are a tier below and it can be argued that the cost outweighs the benefit for many of those players. Many will argue that only a transcendent player who can make players around him better are worthy of being paid that amount of money. Is Dak Prescott that type of player? If not can he become that type of player? Better yet, is Dak a product of his supporting cast? In reality, it is naive to think that even Tom Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, or Wilson can win without a good supporting cast. Football is the ultimate team game: offense, defense, special teams, offensive line, and of course coaching. All of those things factor in. A good or great quarterback can put you over the top, but it is folly to believe that any quarterback is in fact transcendent when it comes to football. Yet clearly, Dak Prescott is not quite at the same level as Wilson or Mahomes. Does that mean he does not deserve as much money? Not necessarily. Rarely does the best quarterback make the most money. The top paid players are simply those whose contracts are up next. Two years ago David Carr ($25 million) and Matt Stafford ($27 million) outraged their respective fan bases after signing massive contracts. That only lasted a few months before guys like Jimmy Garoppolo and Matt Ryan eclipsed those deals. Then Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff pushed the annual salaries into the 30’s of millions. Big Ben and Russell Wilson elevated that to the $35 million dollar range and now Mahomes blew everyone out of the water with is 10 year $45 million/year extension. Looking back at Carr and Stafford, those appear to be bargain deals. That is what Dak’s deal will look like in a few short years. To anyone who argues otherwise and claims that the pandemic will decrease the salary cap in 2021 reversing the trend, I offer the following. The NFL revenues have grown exponentially over the last few years and considering the NFL draft is a bigger event than the NBA finals I don’t expect it’s popularity to subside any time soon. Factor in that a new CBA deal was reached recently that increased player revenue shares. Then there will be a new lucrative TV deal, legalised gambling, an 18 game regular season, and expanded playoffs. The salary cap will undoubtedly rise and QB salaries will rise with it. So this is not a question of does Dak deserve to be the highest paid QB? It is a question of whether he deserves to be among the top 10 highest paid in 4 or 5 years.
Did the Dallas Cowboys make a fair offer?
This is perhaps the most hotly debated question with regards to the Dak Prescott contract situation. As per Jane Slater of the NFL Network, the Cowboys final offer was in the range of $33-$35 million per season, with over $100 million in guaranteed ($106m-$108m), and more importantly a five year deal. It is not clear what Dak Prescott and his agent Todd France were asking for but apparently it was the years, four instead of five, that were a major sticking point for Dak. Purely on a numbers standpoint, the annual salary and the guarantees are within range of Wentz and Goff. They are not over and above and it is hard to compare without knowing the finer details such as fully guaranteed at signing, injury guarantees, and several other fine details that could potentially make all the difference in the world. At first glance however, it is not a ridiculous low ball offer comparable to what the Washington franchise offered Kirk Cousins several years ago after franchise tagging him twice consecutively. Still, there are a few things to consider to argue the other side. First off, Dak has reached the end of his contract. He played it out in it’s entirety and therefore is fully guaranteed $31 million on the franchise tag this season. That was not the case for Carson Wentz and Jared Goff who were able to negotiate deals a full 2 years before their contracts would have been up. It is much easier to extend a player who is already compensated more from their rookie deals as 1st rounders, knowing that the team had a 5th year option and THEN the franchise tag as leverage. The Cowboys and Dak Prescott did not have that luxury. As a fourth round pick, Dak’s contract expires a full year earlier and his rookie deal was for far less. In principal, it could be argued that the Dallas Cowboys owe Dak Prescott because he was compensated far less than his peers who performed at relatively the same level during their rookie deals. Additionally, Dak under the franchise tag has a fully guaranteed contract and an opportunity to hit true free agency immediately after or be tagged again for $38 million next season. In order to secure a long term deal, the Dallas Cowboys have to make it more worth the while for Dak than the Eagles and Rams had to for Wentz and Goff simply because the franchise tag and true free agency were that much further away for them when they signed their deals. Also of note is the length of the contract extension. Wentz, Goff, and even Ryan Tannehill ($94 million guaranteed) got four year deals and therefore even if Dak’s guaranteed amount surpassed all of those contracts, it would be for a far less percentage overall since the deal offered to him was for 5 years. Dak, like the others, would like to expedite the opportunity to take another bite of the apple with the salary cap inevitably expected to explode. The Dallas Cowboys would like to secure Dak for the next five years but if that is the case, the contract offer should be substantially more attractive than the four year deals those other quarterbacks received to truly be considered a fair offer.
Salary Cap Concerns.
The biggest argument against paying top dollar for quarterbacks is related to the negative impact on the salary cap. While there are those who claim that the salary cap does not really exist, this is one franchise who knows all too well about it’s existence. It was only a few years ago after doling out a few bad contracts and being penalised for salary cap related sanctions that the Dallas Cowboys were experiencing what was labelled as “salary cap hell”. As a result of that, Jerry Jones was forced to part ways with former Cowboys great DeMarcus Ware. Jerry Jones also expressed regret that he had failed former QB Tony Romo (who he had no reservations about paying) by not building a competitive roster around him. It is perhaps those experiences that are impacting the Dallas Cowboys decisions today. They have been notoriously frugal with free agent spending of late and have worked hard to sign several players to team friendly deals. It is possible that Jerry and Stephen Jones regret paying Tony Romo as much as they did and are trying not to repeat the same mistakes with Dak Prescott. The counter argument to that is that Dak Prescott was on a minimal rookie contract for four years and with all the money they saved during that time, the Cowboys were unwilling to spend money to address obvious positions of concerns such as safety, defensive tackle, tight end, and wide receiver (until recently with the Cooper deal). Further to that, if they are willing to offer $33-$35 million and Dak is asking for a few million dollars more, will that really be the difference between signing an impact player? A few million dollars will not make or break the roster but it could be the difference of keeping the franchise quarterback or seeing him test free agency next year or the year after that. Finally, in keeping with the salary cap. The absolute worst allocation of salary is in the form of a the fully guaranteed $31 million dollar franchise tag that the Cowboys are allowing Dak Prescott to play under this season. Long term is another story but if the Cowboys decide to tag Dak again next year, that figure increases to $38 million which is more than they can afford at this point. Beyond that, tagging him a 3rd year would cost an astronomical $54 million dollars! Clearly, a final decision to either sign Dak Prescott or allow him to leave in free agency must be made prior to that point but until then, the Dallas Cowboys will eat every single penny of that franchise tag against the salary cap.
Historical evidence.
Look no further than to recent history to gauge whether or not it is a good idea to extend a QB, franchise tag him, or draft a replacement. I already mentioned that having a top paid quarterback does not correlate to winning the Super Bowl but what about the franchise tag? It is not often used on quarterbacks and for good reason, it is expensive. Only twice in NFL history has a quarterback played on the franchise tag. The first instance was Drew Brees with the Chargers. Brees performed worse statistically and had a worse record playing on the franchise tag and then suffered a devastating and potential career ending shoulder injury in the final game of that season. Despite that, he still managed to get signed to a lucrative deal with the New Orleans Saints and the rest is history. The second quarterback to play on the franchise tag was Kirk Cousins who did it twice with Washington. Cousins also declined in overall performance and the teams record got worse both seasons. Regardless, Cousins went on to sign a record breaking fully guaranteed contract with the Minnesota Vikings once he hit true free agency. After one season in Minnesota, many considered the signing of Cousins a mistake but he played well last season. He also proved many doubters wrong who claimed he couldn’t win the big game by coming up clutch against the aforementioned Drew Brees and the Saints in a playoff win. In both of these cases, despite declining performance, each quarterback was well compensated in free agency. Also in both cases, the franchise who tagged the quarterbacks were not better off. Historically, franchising a quarterback has proven to be detrimental for the teams that have done it, but to be fair 2 instances is a very small sample size. As for drafting a quarterback, it is the ideal scenario given the cheap rookie contracts but the success rate is far from dependable. Typically, to get the guy you want your team has finish near the bottom of the standings. The Cowboys have invested heavily in paying several stars such as Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, DeMarcus Lawrence, Jaylon Smith, and La’el Collins and they franchised Dak Prescott while signing Andy Dalton as a backup. Chances are, they will not be drafting in the top 5 in 2021. Even if they were, that is no guarantee for success either when drafting a QB. Mitchell Trubisky was selected #2 overall in 2017 ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Many of the other top QB’s in the league, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, or Drew Brees were not the first quarterbacks taken in their respective draft classes and remember Dak Prescott was a fourth round pick. If the plan is to draft another young quarterback, remember that it is not an exact science.
Do you trust the organisation?
Some teams and coaches (Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots for example) have earned the right to make decisions that their fan base can trust. Even though the Patriots let an ageing Tom Brady walk in free agency, the long term sustained success of the organisation merits the faith of the fans. That is simply not the case when it comes to the Dallas Cowboys. The franchise has not appeared in a single conference championship game in 25 years. They join Washington, Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, Miami, Houston, and Cincinnati as the only other teams with that distinction. That is not good company and truly an indictment on the Dallas Cowboys ownership and head office. Furthermore, unlike several of those franchises, the Dallas Cowboys were fortunate enough to stumble upon two quality quarterbacks, quite by accident I might add, and still haven’t managed to get over that hump. Tony Romo was an undrafted free agent third stringer who nearly didn’t make the team before he eventually emerged as the starter. The year the Dallas Cowboys drafted Dak Prescott, they had done so only after missing out on Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook and even then Dak started out battling to make the team as a third string QB before injuries thrust him into the starting role. To have faith in an organisation that has endured two and half decades of futility and thought Quincy Carter and Johnny Manziel were the answer to their problems seems rather foolish. When it comes to negotiating contracts, the team has been equally inept in that department. I previously highlighted the overspending and cap mismanagement that held the team back a few years ago but recently they have adopted the opposite problem. The did sign many of their core players but many of those negotiations did not go smoothly at all. DeMarcus Lawrence was slapped with the franchise tag one season and then had to leverage delaying off season shoulder surgery to get his deal done the very next year. Ezekiel Elliott held out before last season began and after bashing their star running back publicly in the media, the Cowboys eventually caved likely to give Jason Garrett an opportunity to save his job…which it did not. Amari Cooper played last season on the 5th year option of his rookie contract and the Dallas Cowboys dragged their feet on extending him. They actually allowed Cooper to hit free agency. Washington offered Cooper more money but luckily for the Cowboys, the star wide receiver chose to take less money and remain in Dallas. The Cowboys let also let star cornerback Byron Jones get to free agency without even putting up a fight last season. They also displayed poor timing by cutting Dez Bryant before the 2018 season but doing so long after the free agency period began thus limiting Dez’ ability to sign with another team. They followed that up with not replacing Dez with a viable option and subsequently had to spend a first round draft pick to acquire the services of Cooper midseason. Several other questionable moves were made over the years such as bringing back 38 year old Jason Witten last season, completely ignoring glaring holes at certain positions such as safety, and allowing head coach Jason Garrett to last 10 years before finally moving on despite him being the only coach tenured that long without a Super Bowl, an appearance in a conference championship, or back to back playoff appearances. The team has managed to do a few things right in recent years, namely drafting relatively well in the past decade, but it would buck the trend of futility if the Dallas Cowboys front office actually made a smart move with regards to roster management.
Endorsements.
A common argument presented in consideration of Dak Prescott taking less money to stay in Dallas is that playing for “America’s Team” presents more opportunities for endorsements and will set him up nicely after he retires for a job as an announcer among other things. This is a valid point. Dallas itself is a great market but there are also Cowboys fans galore across the entire country. The opportunities following retirement are particularly appealing as financial security beyond playing days can be few and far in between. Still, it is hard to argue that it would be worth while to take less at your full time job just because you have a better opportunity to work at a second job and make even more money. That is, if you stay healthy, perform well, and avoid any controversy that could cost you a sponsorship in the blink of an eye. Besides, Dallas may be the best opportunity out there, but it isn’t as though endorsements and opportunities don’t exist outside of Dallas as well. But really, wouldn’t it be easier to just get as much guaranteed money and security at the one job and then concentrate your time and effort doing that job extremely well? That is, instead of spending half your time shooting commercials for Greek yogurt.
Intangible Impacts.
Aside from all the evidence presented in support of or against signing Dak Prescott to a long term extension, there are some things that simply cannot be measured but must be considered. For example, how does it impact the locker room when a player like Dak Prescott goes from close to league minimum salary to highest paid player on the team? Is there resentment from other players who may feel that Dak’s share of the pie is a hindrance to their own share? Does the pressure of a huge contract and the criticism from fans place an additional burden on Dak on top of the automatic pressure that comes with being the quarterback of America’s team? Perhaps, the Jones’s experienced this first hand with the undrafted Tony Romo who went from underdog to highest paid in a few short years. Surely, the perception in the locker room has to change. It should also be mentioned that for Dak Prescott’s part, it can’t sit well that the team is nickel and dimeing him when he has done everything right on and off the field. The animosity that could be created between the owner, the franchise quarterback, and potentially the coaching staff could be a detriment to the entire team. It could also present such a distraction off the field that it bleeds into the on the field performance. It could also impact teammates who may feel that their quarterback is being disrespected or who tire of answering questions in the media about Dak’s contract, the big white elephant in the room. Speaking of intangibles, we always compare Dak’s numbers to other players, his wins and losses, yards, and his natural ability to throw the ball. What about the intangible value that he provides to both the team and the Dallas Cowboys brand? He has proven to be an exceptional leader who stepped in as a rookie and won the respect of the locker room. He is a competitor who is not afraid to lower his shoulder and sacrifice his body in order to win. He has shown maturity and a willingness to hone is craft and improve things such as footwork, accuracy, throwing motion, and the mental aspect of the game which is a common trait of the greatest quarterbacks to play the game. He has also proven to be mature off the field. He conducts himself accordingly in interviews and in public appearances. He always seems to say the right things, and he has not shown poor judgement like his teammate Ezekiel Elliott has at times. Unlike his counterpart Carson Wentz he has also managed to stay healthy his entire career and thus far has not had his leadership or work ethic called into question. When considering investing in a franchise quarterback, there are certainly intangible aspects that although difficult to quantify, must be taken into consideration.
Final Thoughts.
It will be difficult to determine what the right decision is or was for the Dallas Cowboys concerning Dak Prescott. We will always wonder “What if?” and the answer to that question may prove impossible to answer. In consideration of all that was discussed in this article, for me the only questions that matter are: Is it worth it to pay a quarterback that much money? And..“Is Dak Prescott worth it”. I am firmly undecided on the first question. I know that having an elite or very good quarterback increases the chances of winning but I wonder if even a Patrick Mahomes is better than a Teddy Bridgewater at less than half the price, a Jadeveon Clowney, and a Jamal Adams. As for Dak Prescott, I do firmly believe in the guy. So if the Dallas Cowboys are going to pay someone, I would prefer that it be Dak Prescott. Only time will tell if I am right about that, or if all the hate that Dak is receiving from the other side was justified all along.
*Photo by Joe Glorioso All Pro Reels https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/2.0/legalcode
