First and foremost, let’s get one thing out of the way. If Jason Garrett does get fired at the end of the season, the Cowboys will not replace him with a big name proven commodity. John Gruden and Tony Dungy are both seated firmly in the broadcaster’s booth. The last time the Cowboys made a big splash like that, even the great Bill Parcells failed to win a playoff game for us. The top tier collegiate head coaches like Jim Harbaugh and Nick Saban aren’t going anywhere either. History has shown that the transition from college to pro is rarely a recipe for success anyway. No, If Garrett does go, he will likely be replaced by a young up and coming co-ordinator just like when he was hired in the first place. With that in mind, are the Cowboys better off with or without him?
Let’s first consider sticking with Garrett. There is something to be said about continuity, especially when you have a young QB to develop like Dak Prescott. There are 16 teams with coaches less than 3 years tenured with their clubs in the NFL and only 37% of them have posted a winning record. Conversely, of the 10 longest tenured coaches every single one of them has posted a winning record. During his first four years with the Cowboys, Jason Garrett never really enjoyed much success. However he has lead the Cowboys to the playoffs and won division titles in 2 of the last 3 seasons. It would appear that he is trending in the right direction and a strong argument can be made to keep him. Besides, unless there is a viable coaching candidate to replace him, why make a change just to make a change?
On the other hand, while Garrett has had a couple of good seasons, he has not been able to string together consecutive winning seasons. Neither has he been able to translate regular season success into postseason success. Those are the things that separate good coaches from great ones. Jason Garrett has posted a winning record during his time as the Dallas Cowboys head coach but when compared to the longest tenured NFL coaches his list of accomplishments is severely lacking.
Garrett is among the 10 longest tenured coaches in the NFL but has the lowest winning % of all of them. He also has the least amount of playoff appearances and division titles. He has recorded only 1 playoff win and never led the Cowboys to a championship game. Clearly Garrett is the least accomplished of this group. Previously I had pointed out that only 37% of NFL coaches with less than 3 years tenure had a winning record. While this is a true statement it does not consider that the vast majority of those coaches inherited a losing program. Interestingly, of those same coaches with 3 years tenure or less 69% of them have an improved winning % from their predecessors. That means that more than 2/3 of the teams that have made a coaching change in the last 3 years saw an improvement. Perhaps moving on from Jason Garrett is not a bad idea after all.
Only time will tell if Jerry Jones decides to move on from Jason Garrett this offseason. While it is my opinion that it would be a good decision for the Cowboys, I would much rather see this team make a run for the playoffs with that familiar face clapping along on the sidelines.
All Data collected and verified from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
*Photo by Kieth Allison https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode