The Dallas Cowboys are off to a 1-3 start this season and by all accounts they should be 0-4. They have been outplayed, outworked, and outclassed in every single game so far; And, if not for the heroics of quarterback Dak Prescott, they would not have had even the slightest chance of competing in any them. Or at least that’s how I see it. There is another point of view shared by a contingent of fans who want to see the Dallas Cowboys run game resurrected from all the way back from 2016. Although I disagree wholeheartedly with this assessment, In the interest of not sounding all high and mighty, I would like to explore the merits of this theory.
My reservations to believe in this idea are not unfounded. The Dallas Cowboys run game is not what it used to be. The offensive line is banged up and no longer has the likes of Travis Frederick, Ronald Leary, or Doug Free as they did in 2016. La’el Collins and now Tyron Smith are likely out for the season to boot. Although I would be remiss not to mention that the Cowboys still do have one of, if not the best running back in football, Ezekiel Elliott on the roster.
In truth the Dallas Cowboys run game has been abandoned for much of the season. The team currently ranks lowest in the entire league in terms of run play% compared to pass plays. The simple explanation as to why that is the case is due to game flow. The Cowboys have been down big in three consecutive games so naturally they were forced to pass the ball frequently and at a frantic pace just to give themselves a chance. In essence, the Dallas Cowboys run game has been neutralised because the team has fallen behind in every game. The reason the Cowboys keep falling behind is two fold; Terrible defensive play but also because the offense keeps turning the ball over. Ironically, they have uncharacteristically turned the ball over more frequently in the run game than the pass game. How can a team overcome the impossible odds created when they have a bad defense, they turn the ball over, and their defense can’t get turnovers of their own? It is by scoring a lot of points. The only way to do that is by passing the ball. To date it has produced positive results. The Dallas Cowboys rank 1st in offensive yards. While detractors may point out that yards can be accumulated easily in “garbage time” when your team is playing from behind it should also be noted the only the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks have scored more points thus far through 4 games. In my opinion, it is a reasonable expectation that if your team can manage to average over 30 pts/game, as the Dallas Cowboys have, they should expect to win most of their games. However, that has not been the case for the Dallas Cowboys who are dead last in terms of points given up and top three in yards allowed.
While there is no denying that numbers wise the offense is producing, the proponents of the Dallas Cowboys run game are accurate in pointing out that there does exist an imbalance. The high pass frequency compared to run plays has led to the Dallas Cowboys being the number one passing offense (in yards) in the entire league but being in the bottom third in rushing yards. That is not by any means a desirable situation even for a pass happy team. I have already pointed out that game flow has contributed a large part to this but looking closer, it is not the only factor. On first down this season, the Dallas Cowboys have attempted passes nearly twice as often as they have run (94-55) and on second down the disparity is even larger at a ratio of 68:25 in favour of passing. That too speaks to game flow given the Cowboys have played with a lead fewer minutes than any other team in the league but even in the first quarter the numbers are consistent. The Dallas Cowboys have passed nearly twice as often in the first quarter than they have run the ball (40:24). So it appears that the run pass ratio is not simply explained by the Dallas Cowboys falling behind in games but that it is also by design. This team has clearly changed it’s identity from a running team to a passing team.
Changing to a passing team is supposed to be a good thing. The NFL is a passing league now. The roster is loaded with weapons at wide receiver and the quarterback has really evolved into a top tier passer. However, there is some sound logic to consider, disagree as I might, that running the football is the best thing for this team going forward. Here are the main points in support of the idea of reestablishing the Dallas Cowboys run game:
- The offensive line is banged up and run blocking is easier than pass blocking
- The defense is really bad and appears to be lacking effort. Longer drives could give them a chance to re-energise while keeping opposing offenses off the field
- Ezekiel Elliott is still one of the best running backs in the game and a punishing runner for opposing defenses to attempt to tackle
These are all sound arguments logically speaking but aside from the fact it is a cowardly approach, there are some serious flaws that must be addressed. First of all, running the ball and keeping the defense off of the field is a great strategy if effective, but what if you can’t consistently run the ball effectively? Yards per attempt are always significantly higher with passing as opposed to running the ball but the Dallas Cowboys are much more efficient compared to the rest of the league with their passing. They currently rank 7th in the NFL in pass yards per attempt (8.3) meanwhile they rank 19th in the NFL in rush yards per attempt (4.2). For those that might argue this is inflated by “garbage time” it should be noted that the Dallas Cowboys yards/Pass attempt is highest for the first three quarters (over 9.0) and drops significantly to 7.2 in the 4th quarter. Conversely, by far the lowest yards/attempt rushing the ball for the Cowboys is in the first quarter (2.7). It’s almost as if the rushing statistics are being inflated during the so called garbage time as opposed to the passing numbers. It is also notable to look at the first down efficiency when comparing the passing and rushing statistics. The Dallas Cowboys are gaining first downs with a much higher frequency throwing the ball than they are running the ball. This is consistent for every single quarter over the entire season so far. This is important because you need to get first downs to keep possession of the football if the goal is keep the opposing offense off of the field. If you stubbornly commit to running the ball and you end up punting it away, then that defeats the whole purpose doesn’t it?
The final observation I would like to point out is reviewing each game individually and analysing at what point the Dallas Cowboys had given up the lead. In each game, the Dallas Cowboys fell behind quickly and had to play catch up but it was at a different time for each game. The Rams game they fell behind in the first quarter and the same for the Falcons game. Against the Seahawks and Browns things went south in the second quarter. Just out of pure curiosity I wanted to compare the frequency of running and passing plays at those points to see if perhaps running the ball more would have made a difference. In each and every case, there was absolutely no correlation with the Cowboys being pass heavy and the other team getting a big lead. In fact, there was a closer correlation in those games when the Cowboys were more run heavy. That doesn’t surprise me because an unusual amount of their turnovers just happened to occur in the run game this season. When the Cowboys turn the ball over, they run less plays, less pass plays, and the other team tends to score. I don’t expect that trend to continue since it is an anomaly but such a trend should help to debunk the theory that the Cowboys pass too much and it hurts our defense. That is not what is happening at all. Plainly and simply the Cowboys turn the ball over too much and that is what is hurting our already struggling defense.
In conclusion, there really is no SURE way to confirm that if the Dallas Cowboys commit to the run game, they will improve their chances going forward. It is impossible to determine all the “what if’s” and to project scenarios that simply have not occurred to date. Even with all the statistics that are made readily available at our disposal there are just too many other variables to consider. Regardless, I for one remain sceptical of the idea that an offense that can manage to score 30 pts a game passing the ball and doing so often, is a bad thing. Moreover, if the offense can continue to be successful passing the ball while not turning it over, than more often than not it should lead to victory and not defeat.
ALL DATA AND STATISTICS OBTAINED AND VERIFIED FROM https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
*Photo by Joe Glorioso https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode
