You may hear the cliché that Sunday’s Cowboys Chiefs matchup is a potential Super Bowl preview. Both teams fanbases certainly have lofty expectations for how their season should end, but they have taken vastly different paths thus far.
The Dallas Cowboys (7-2) bounced back from a head-scratching, 30-16 home loss in Week 9 to the Denver Broncos and thumped the Atlanta Falcons 43-3 last Sunday. The Cowboys racked up 431 yards of offense in that game with Dak Prescott throwing for 296 and two touchdowns. The Cowboys defense held Atlanta to 214 yards and 11 first downs with three turnovers. There was even a blocked punt that resulted in a touchdown. It was without question Dallas’ best overall effort of the season. A season which has had quite a few impressive performances by the Dallas Cowboys already.
Kansas City (6-4) also was impressive last Sunday, dominating Las Vegas 41-14 on “Sunday Night Football”. The Chiefs looked more like what most were expecting them to look like entering this season. Patrick Mahomes threw for 406 yards and five touchdowns. The defense was fantastic as well, forcing two turnovers and holding the Raiders to 299 total yards. For the most part, Mahomes has not looked like the ALL-World, $500 million dollar quarterback that fans have come to know. This season, he has struggled with turning the ball over and missing throws. The Chiefs defense has been even worse. Up until last week, they have been by far the weakest link for Andy Reid‘s team.
Despite Kansas City’s recent struggles, they are still considered a team to beat and they are more than capable of turning it on as we saw last week. This matchup has drawn comparisons to one memorable game from Dak Prescott’s rookie season. That was when he and the Cowboys travelled to Pittsburgh and defeated a talented but struggling Steelers squad in a nail biter. This game against the Chiefs has the potential to be one for the ages, just like that game in Pittsburgh. Here are three things to watch for, which may impact how this game might unfold .
1. INTANGIBLES AND INJURY CONCERNS
Dallas’ previous two games were at home, but this team has already won on the road against the Chargers, Patriots, and Vikings, so don’t expect the Cowboys to crumble in Arrowhead Stadium. They do have a short turnaround to host Las Vegas on Thanksgiving Day, but that won’t impact how Dallas prepares for Kansas City. The Cowboys also are relatively healthy with left tackle Tyron Smith (ankle) the biggest injury concern. He’s missed the last two games and remains limited in practice but his replacement Terence Steele had a much better performance last week than he did against the Broncos, so no need to panic if Smith can’t go. A couple of surprise lineup changes were announced in the Cowboys recent press conference. Amari Cooper was put on the Covid 19- list which is a big blow to the receiving corps. It appears likely that he will miss the next two games. Connor Williams will also be replaced by Connor McGovern in the starting lineup. Williams hasn’t been as bad as many Cowboys fans think he has been but his frequent penalties have led to the Cowboys coaching staffs’ decision to make a change. Kansas City are looking to maintain their hot stretch before they head into their bye week. The Chiefs are just 3-2 at home this season but normally play very well in front of a raucous Arrowhead crown. They have a few more injury concerns, but the one to watch for is running back Clyde-Edwards Helaire. He’s been on injured reserve after suffering an MCL sprain in Week 5 but has been designated to return. He could be activated in time to play on Sunday, or the team could opt to wait until after the bye to give him more time. Darrel Williams has been handling the bulk of the work in CHE’s absence, and he was particularly impressive against Las Vegas. Williams totaled 144 yards from scrimmage, 101 of those receiving. He also showed off his athleticism and body control on a 38-yard touchdown catch early in the fourth quarter.
2. DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE
Neither of these two teams are known for their defense, yet last week both units were fantastic. On paper, Dallas is statistically better. They rank 15th in yards allowed per game (354.0) vs. 26th for Kansas City (373.2). Both teams have struggled against the pass, which bodes well for Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes. Last week, the Cowboys held Atlanta to 214 yards, thanks to a 1-for-11 showing on third down, and they also picked off three passes. The Chiefs limited Las Vegas to 299 yards, only 1-of-9 third-down conversions, and 50 rushing yards while forcing two turnovers. It will be interesting to see if either defense can maintain this level of performance on Sunday considering the caliber of both offenses. Many expect this game to be a shootout but it is possible that the offensive game plan for either team flips the script. It is not out of the question that either team may attempt to try to control the ball and keep the other team’s offense off the field.
3. RUN, RUN, RUN
On that note, the team that runs the ball efficiently will be able to control the ball, time of possession, and limit the offensive opportunities for the other team. Following a disappointing 2020 season, Ezekiel Elliott had gotten off to a strong start this year, including a three-week stretch where he ran for 348 yards. However, he’s not been as productive recently, posting three straight games with 50 or fewer rushing yards. Elliott’s drop in production has coincided with Prescott’s calf injury which has affected the entire offense. Prior to last week’s 43-point outburst, the Cowboys had managed a total of 36 points in their first two games after the Week 7 bye. If Tyron Smith is able to return for this game, that could give Zeke and the run game a nice boost. Elliott and backfield mate Tony Pollard (445 yds., 5.4 ypc) need to get back to running all over teams, especially against a Kansas City defense that’s giving up 115 yards per game on the ground.
FINAL ANALYSIS
In what I expect to be a close game, whoever takes advantage of their opportunities in the red zone and gets that game changing turnover will win this game. Look for the cowboys to test the chiefs run defense, and hit the chiefs with play action in order to expose their suspect secondary. Mahomes has been generous with the football this season so I expect the opportunistic Cowboys defense to get at least one turnover. Trevon Diggs has gotten all the attention with his league leading 8 interceptions but Anthony Brown (3) and the “Ball Gawd” Jourdan Lewis (2) have also proved capable of making big plays on defense. The Cowboys will continue their winning ways on the road, and win another statement game in what is turning out to be a magical season in Dallas
.
Final Score : Dallas Cowboys 31 Kansas City Chiefs 27
**All Data and statistics obtained and verified from ;https://www.pro-football-reference.com/