The Cowboys QB is losing leverage in his contract negotiation and here is why:
The tables are slowly turning on Dak Prescott and his agent Todd France as the July 15th deadline to negotiate a long-term deal with the Dallas Cowboys approaches. Prior to having the dreaded franchise tag applied, Dak and his camp had all the leverage; The new CBA had not yet been ratified, Amari Cooper was as of yet unsigned, new head coach Mike McCarthy was anxious to begin off-season workouts and Dak was an unrestricted free agent in a hot QB market. Suddenly amidst a worldwide pandemic, some of the power has shifted in the direction of Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys head office who have been playing hard ball in the Dak Prescott contract negotiation from day one. What has happened between then and now to cause such a shift.
1. Value of the Franchise tag has dropped
When the franchise tag was originally applied, it was estimated to be worth $33 million dollars for one year based on the earnings of the top 5 QB contracts in the league. Since then, current contracts have been restructured and the new figure is just over $28 million. This is significant because the amount of money guaranteed over the next two years is a factor in negotiating the terms of guaranteed money and guaranteed money at the time of signing. This figure may be a major roadblock for Dak Prescott in his contract negotiations.
2. Free agent market has been underwhelming
A major reason that Dak Prescott has not agreed to a deal that was reportedly top 5 money for his position is that Prescott and his agent know that the salary cap will rise each and every year. The goal for every player is to reset the market for their position knowing that in a year or two they will inevitably be surpassed by the next man up. The new CBA that was passed following a very close vote by the players union will increase league revenue and the salary cap substantially over the next few years. The expectation would be that the free agent market would increase in the offseason but that has not been the case. Aside from a few exceptions such as cornerback and tight end, the 2020 free agent market has regressed for most position groups. Even with those exceptions, the contracts for CB’s Bryon Jones, Darius Slay and TE’s Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper have only barely exceeded the top existing contracts. In most position groups, the market was reset the last two years and regressed this offseason. That is true for running backs with Todd Gurley, LeVeon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliott all earning far more than Melvin Gordan did. Bobby Wagner and C.J Mosley reset the interior linebacker market in a major way in 2019 while Kyle Van Noy and Blake Martinez received relatively modest deals this year. WR Amari Cooper got a sizeable contract but not with the same realm of those Michael Thomas and Julio Jones received in 2019. Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence, the list of players that reset the market in previous years is extensive while 2020 has been disappointing in that regard. I imagine that the new CBA being ratified immediately before the new CBA was passed played a part in complicating contract negotiations due to uncertainly. It can also be argued that the quality of free agents available is lower than it has been in recent years. It is also likely that the global pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus has played a much more significant role. Teams are unable to visit with players in person, physicals are unable to be completed as per usual and that likely results in some hesitation to break the bank on any given free agent. Regardless of the reason, it is apparent that the free agent market has been underwhelming given the rising salary cap.
3. The Quarterback market is flooded
As mentioned in the previous argument, the free agent market has been underwhelming in 2020 but that is most apparent at the QB position. Last year, extensions for Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff blew the top off a QB market that had experienced a similar rise in 2018 with Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Kirk Cousins, and Jimmy Garoppolo, That has not been the case in 2020 however. This off-season has been unique in that there were a plethora of veteran free agent QB’s available such as Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco, and Marcus Mariota. Not to mention the QB’s made available via trade such as Nick Foles and Andy Dalton. In addition there is strong young crop of QB’s available in the upcoming NFL draft. Of the QB’s that have already agreed to deals, they have been far below market value. That is because the available options are either old (Tom Brady, Philip Rivers) or still unproven (Ryan Tannehill). The Teddy Bridgewater contract was the biggest blow for Dak Prescott and his camp. Bridgewater was thought to demand in the $30 million/year range but settled for a modest $21 million/year deal. Still, it should be noted that Dak Prescott is unique among this group. He is young, has been durable, has played out his modest rookie contract, and is coming off of his best statistical season. Regardless, in contract negotiations the recent activity is used as a benchmark and where in 2019 the compareables were Wilson, Goff, and Wentz the 2020 standard is well below that.
4. No offseason workouts, no opportunity for a holdout
When the Dallas Cowboys chose to franchise tag Dak Prescott to prevent any other teams from signing him, they likely only did that to buy more time to negotiate a long term deal. Ideally, the team would have liked to have a Dak Prescott contact in place prior to OTA’s (organized training activities). With a new head coach in Mike McCarthy, it is important to make sure the quarterback shows up for the optional workouts, is happy, and gets as much work in early to allow a smoother transition. This situation presented a golden opportunity for Dak Prescott and his agent to gain even more leverage. A holdout from participating in OTA’s would really put the pressure on the Dallas Cowboys to cave in to the Dak Prescott contract demands. Whether it is the amount of guaranteed money or the length of the deal, there is something that is holding the two sides back from finalizing the contract. Now as as result of the COVID-19 pandemic, all team activities are suspended and the opportunity for Dak Prescott to use this vital leverage is fading. With no exact date as to when any form of team activities will resume, every day brings the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott closer to the July 15th deadline. At that point, if no Dak Prescott contract extension is agreed to, Dak has to either play under the 1 year franchise tag or potentially sit out the entire season risking yet another franchise tag in 2021. I would imagine that option would not be desirable for Dak Prescott or the Dallas Cowboys.
All things considered, Dak Prescott still has a lot of leverage. The Dallas Cowboys obviously hired Mike McCarthy to try to win now with Dak Prescott at the helm. However, where Dak Prescott previously held all the cards in the contract negotiation, that is no longer the case and perhaps a deal will get done sooner because of it.
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Information regarding new and existing NFL contracts obtained and verified from Spotrac.com