It will be the Dallas Cowboys VS the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday night in the NFC divisional playoff round and the Cowboys are huge underdogs on the road. The Rams finished the season as the #2 seed in the NFC and are loaded with offensive firepower led by All Pro RB Todd Gurley along with a number of talented players on defense such as the reigning defensive player of the year DT Aaron Donald. If the Dallas Cowboys hope to upset the Rams and continue their magical run this season, here are some keys to victory.
1. Feed Zeke
The Dallas Cowboys offense lives and dies with #21. Ezekiel Elliott led the league in rushing this season, was the teams leading receiver and the Cowboys are 10-3 in games that he has had 20 or more touches. Conversely, Dallas has lost all three games that Zeke has played in and had fewer than 20 touches. The Rams meanwhile have the 23rd ranked rush defense in the NFL which makes it appear that the Cowboys have an advantage here. Don’t be fooled by the numbers though. The Rams, like every other team that faces the Cowboys, know that they need to stop #21 and they have the personnel to do it. They have a stout front seven led by the dominant defensive tackles Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. They also have two very talented CB’s Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters which will allow them to load the box and take their chances in coverage. The Dallas Cowboys interior offensive line, especially Joe Looney and either Connor Williams or Xavier Su’a-Filo, will be challenged and must win that battle for the Cowboys to succeed. In the passing game, perhaps the Cowboys offense could exploit the middle of the field, especially with their emerging tight ends Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz as the Rams have given up production to TE’s this season. There is an additional X-factor in the matchup against the Rams defense and that is the presence of the Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Phillips, the former Cowboys head coach, would love nothing more than to beat his replacement Jason Garrett in a meaningful playoff game. He will have his defense well prepared and motivated for Saturday’s game. The Dallas Cowboys offense must be equally motivated and prepared in order to do what they are built to do…run the ball and dominate time of possession.
2. Contain Todd Gurley
As high flying and fast paced as the Rams offense appears to be they are as dependent on Todd Gurley as the Cowboys are on Ezekiel Elliott. In the Rams 3 losses, Gurley has averaged less than 50 rushing yards/game. In the 11 victories, he has averaged more than 100 yards/game. Todd Gurley is banged up and has been for the entire season but now he has had 3 weeks to recover and should have fresh legs for Saturday’s playoff game. As great as the Dallas Cowboys defense has been against the run this season, they have also shown that they can be pushed around by a good offensive line and running back. The loss to the Colts in Indianapolis (the Cowboys only loss in the last 9 games) was a perfect example this. If the offense struggles and Gurley is able to do his thing, the explosive Rams offense could open right up and this game could get ugly very quickly. However, if the Cowboys can shut down Gurley like they shut down the Saints dymanic duo and the Seahawks ground game last week then I like their chances. If the Cowboys can accomplish that then the Rams will have to depend on Jared Goff to make plays. It is exactly what the Rams will try to do to Dak Prescott. Goff is a young QB who has played in only 1 career playoff game…a loss. Goff is not a mobile QB like Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota and Deshaun Watson. Those mobile QB’s gave the Dallas Cowboys defense problems and played a major role in 5 of Dallas’ 6 regular season losses. Meanwhile, against some of the better pocket passers in the league, such as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford, the Cowboys have had success. Since Goff is a pocket passer without big time playoff experience, it would appear likely that if the “Hot Boyz” can pressure him that he will buckle and make mistakes. The only way to open up that possibility is to contain Todd Gurley.
3. Finish Drives
The Dallas Cowboys have won 8 of their last 9 despite having a significant issue scoring points to finish drives when they get in the red zone. That simply cannot continue if the Dallas Cowboys are going to give themselves a chance to win this game. The red zone struggles are mind blowing considering that offense has actually been moving the ball very well of late. The Cowboys have neglected to give their star running back the ball inside the 10 yard line. They have not used Rico Gathers as a red zone target. The play calling has been questionable and Dak Prescott has not been used nearly enough as a runner. That started to change in the second half of the wildcard win against the Seahawks and hopefully that will carry over into this week. The Rams are a team that can score points and do so quickly. Against such an opponent, the Dallas Cowboys can’t afford to leave points on the board.
4. Special Teams Need To Win
When the Dallas Cowboys lost special teams coach Rich Bisaccia in the offseason along with several contributors, I was concerned about the fallout. Those concerns have not been alleviated even during the Cowboys current run to the division title. Chris Jones is a solid punter and the Cowboys have been decent in kicking coverage but the return game has been awful. All season long the Cowboys have been losing the battles for field position thanks in part to their stagnant return game. Last week there were signs of life in the form of Tavon Austin. He had a couple big returns (one being a TD called back after a holding call) and gave the Cowboys a spark that they have been lacking all season long. If that carries over to this week, that could provide a huge boost for the Cowboys and may be the difference in a close game. Sticking with special teams, I am concerned about the kicker Brett Maher. Not only for the inconsistency in the kicking game but because he has had trouble getting touchbacks on kickoffs. With players no longer able to get a running start on kickoffs the Cowboys can open themselves up to long return if Maher can’t manage to kick it through the endzone. On Saturday against the Rams, the Dallas Cowboys can take a lot of pressure off of their offense and defense if they can win on special teams.
5. Dak Prescott VS Marcus Peters
Rams CB Marcus Peters has a reputation as a gambler. He is known to take chances and occasionally get beat but has remarkably recorded 22 interceptions in just 61 career NFL games. Dak Prescott is known as a guy that does not take chances. Sometimes to a fault, Dak will hold on to the ball and play if safe but by doing so has only thrown only 25 picks in 48 career games. This comparison between the quarterback who tries not to make mistakes and the cornerback who tries to force them is a microcosm of the Cowboys and Rams this season. The Cowboys are a top five team in the league at having turned the ball over the least amount of times while the Rams have generated the 3rd most takeaways in the NFL this season. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been one of the best in the league this season but they have not been one of the better defenses in terms of creating turnovers and the Rams are middle of the pack in terms of giveaways. Ultimately, whether it is a result of the offense not turning the ball over or the defense getting some takeaways, the Dallas Cowboys cannot afford to lose the turnover battle as they did against Seattle. While this typically is a no brainer as a key to win in any game, the importance is magnified by the fact the both teams have been successful with turnovers but in opposite ways. So, in the critical category of turnover ratio, the Dallas Cowboys offense is pitted against the Los Angeles Rams defense as the key component of this metric.
There are a couple additional factors of note in this divisional round matchup. The Dallas Cowboys have not been rested while the LA Rams have had a week off or longer for some of their star players. This could either be an advantage or a disadvantage depending on your perspective. I believe it is an advantage for the Cowboys since the Rams are one of the younger teams in the league. The Rams are more prone to rust than an established veteran team like the Patriots. Secondly, the Dallas Cowboys will travel to Los Angeles. Dallas have clearly been far worse on the road (3-5) than they have been at home (8-1) this season. Fortunately for the Dallas Cowboys the home advantage for the Rams will be mitigated by several factors. There are a large number of Dallas Cowboy fans in the Los Angeles area. The Rams do not have an established fan base having been a team that only recently returned back to LA after a long stint in St. Louis. Weather will not be a factor as it would in colder climates such as Philadelphia or Chicago. Finally, Dallas Cowboy fans always travel well and especially in the playoffs. So on Saturday night, Dallas Cowboys VS Los Angeles Rams could be the closest thing to a neutral site aside from the Super Bowl. With these additional factors in play, I am optimistic that the Dallas Cowboys have a great opportunity to successfully manage these 5 keys to winning and shock the world by advancing to the NFC championship game.
*Photo by Kieth Allison https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode
All data and statistics obtained and verified from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
I don’t think Rams match up well with us, we have better defense and there’s gives up a lot of points. So winning this game ain’t gonna shock me or a lot of other’s. Slow Gurley put pressure on Goff and if we can put up 27 we got this.