The New Orleans Saints will roll into Dallas on Thursday riding a 10 game winning streak and looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The host Dallas Cowboys are on a winning streak of their own. A 3 game winning streak to be exact. During that stretch Jason Garrett and the boys have gone from being written off to being the favorite to win the lowly NFC East. Impressive as it may be to win 3 games in a row in the NFL the quality of the opponents the Cowboys have beaten is nowhere near that of the Saints. For that reason, most people are not giving the Cowboys a chance to win this game. Jerry Jones is one of the few who believes the Cowboys can win the game because they have the formula that can slow down a potent offence like New Orleans: good running game + good defense = Control the clock and beat Drew Brees. Are the Dallas Cowboys keys to victory against the Saints so simple and do the Cowboys have a legitimate shot to beat them?
That formula seems a little redundant doesn’t it? That formula should help any team win any game. If your team is winning the game, chances are that by default your team will run the ball and control the clock. Granted it is true that the Cowboys are a team built to execute that exact formula. At least they are supposed to be but they have not been able to do that effectively all season in the games they have lost. The Cowboys have been able to run the ball well of late but they are facing the New Orleans Saints number one ranked defense against the run this year. The Saints have not allowed a single 100 yard rusher all season long despite facing some of the best backs in the league such as Saquan Barkley, Joe Mixon and Todd Gurley. Even in their only loss this season, the season opener against the Buccaneers, they were solid against the run. The formula the Bucs used to take down the Saints was not running the ball and controlling the clock. They were instead able to keep up with Brees and the high powered Saints offense in a 48-40 shoot out victory. That is not a likely recipe for success for the Cowboys.
The Cowboys will have to find a way to run the ball for sure but they need to be able to stop Drew Brees in order to have a chance. That will be no easy task. Drew Brees has torched the Dallas Cowboys during Jason Garrett’s tenure. He has a 4-1 record in 5 games and in those games he has completed 73% of his passes, averaged 377 passing yards/game and thrown 12 TD’s to 2 interceptions. The 2018 Dallas Cowboys defense is a far better unit than those that faced Brees in the past but this season Drew Brees is playing at an MVP level, behind one of the better offensive lines in football and has a wealth of weapons at his disposal. The Saints are far from one dimensional either. Their high powered offense is one of the most balanced in the league ranking 6th in the total passing yards and 7th in rushing yards. The Cowboys will be tasked with stopping Drew Brees AND the Saints dynamic duo of running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.
The Saints certainly present their fair share of difficult match ups. Of all the matchups the Cowboys will be challenged with the coaching matchup could be the most important factor in this game. Jason Garrett VS Sean Payton is not favourable for Dallas. Jason Garrett is 1-4 VS the Saints in his career while Payton has won 3 out of 4 against his former colleague. Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Scott Linehan has not inspired confidence of late while his opponent, Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, has done a great job this year in New Orleans. That appears to be another mismatch in favour of the Saints. The key matchup for the Cowboys will be the Saints OC Pete Carmichael Jr and Sean Payton against the Cowboys Kris Richard and Rod Marinelli. Will the Dallas Cowboys defensive coaching staff be able to scheme an effective enough game plan to limit the Saints high powered offense?
The Dallas Cowboys keys to victory against the Saints will not be as simple as just running the ball, playing good defense, and controlling the clock. Even if they can do all of those things, Drew Brees has the ability to steal the game in the last quarter or the final drive. They will probably need to do all of those aforementioned things and more in order to beat the Saints. They will have to make some of the big plays on both sides of the ball just as they did in their last 3 games. A little bit of good luck won’t hurt either. Still, stranger things have happened in the NFL. The Saints may be big favourites against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night but as the saying goes “…On any given Thursday…”
All data and statistics obtained and verified from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
*Photo by Kieth Allison https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode