Last season, the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys combined for 11 wins. After their game on Sunday — four weeks into the season — they will be more than halfway to that total. The Cowboys were a popular bounce-back team with the return of quarterback Dak Prescott from ankle and shoulder injuries, but few saw the Panthers as contenders in Year 2 under head coach Matt Rhule. Their schedule has been weak thus far with wins over the Jets, Saints, and Texans, but Carolina is one of just five undefeated teams left in the NFL. With strong starts for both teams, this game has potential playoff implications early on. A 2-1 record in a weak NFC East gives the Cowboys a 75.7% chance of making the playoffs. The Panthers meanwhile, have a 51% chance. If both teams finish with identical records, this game will serve as the tiebreaker. Here are some things to watch for and how this game might unfold:
CAN CAROLINA ADEQUATELY REPLACE CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY?
The Panthers’ 24-9 resounding win over the Texans last week proved to be a Pyrrhic victory. They lost star running back Christian McCaffrey in the second quarter to a strained hamstring. These minor injuries are occurring all too often for the 25-year-old as he missed 13 games last season with ankle and shoulder injuries. The good news for Carolina is that rookie Chuba Hubbard filled in admirably for McCaffrey last week, picking up 52 yards on 11 carries and adding three receptions for 27 yards. He was a certified star at Oklahoma State when he rushed for 2,094 yards and 21 scores in his sophomore year. Former Bronco Royce Freeman also added 17 yards on five carries, most of which came on a 13-yard rumble. The Texans don’t exactly have the strongest front seven, but it’s hard to know what to expect from the Cowboys up front. Opponents have barely run on Dallas (league-low 45 attempts), which is why they rank sixth in run defense. More concerningly, they rank 26th in yards allowed per carry (4.7) after ranking 30th in that category (5.0) in 2020. The run defense was a major problem for the Cowboys last season and this may be the first game which tests exactly how much they have improved on that aspect of the defense. Hubbard and Freeman may be able to replicate much of what McCaffrey can do on the ground, but his bigger contribution may be as Darnold’s safety valve. McCaffrey ranks second to D.J. Moore on the team with 16 receptions and 163 receiving yards, and his presence allowed Darnold to take more check-downs and safe passes.
DO THE PANTHERS HAVE THE DEPTH TO SLOW DOWN DAK PRESCOTT?
Dallas’ playoff chances hinge on Prescott’s health and effectiveness. through three weeks he’s looked every bit like the Pro Bowl passer of old. Prescott leads the NFL with a 77.5 percent completion rate and has six touchdowns to two interceptions with 292.7 yards per game. With apologies to Zach Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Davis Mills, Prescott is by far the best quarterback the Panthers have faced this season and they will be taking on this challenge short-handed. In addition to McCaffrey, the Panthers also lost first-rounder Jaycee Horn to a broken foot and safety Juston Burris to a groin injury in the win over Houston. Carolina did bring in former Jaguars top-10 pick C.J. Henderson, but he may not be ready to play with less than a week in Rhule’s system. There is also a reason Jacksonville gave up on him, after just 19 games, in exchange for a seldom used tight end Dan Arnold and a swap of draft picks (third-rounder for fifth-rounder). Prescott looks as effective as ever, and the Panthers will be hard-pressed to slow him down. The Panthers like to bring pressure and challenge the quarterback but that could backfire on them if Dak Prescott continues to play with poise and efficiency.
WHO WILL WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE?
Turnovers will be crucial in any game, but the Cowboys have been the most disruptive team in the league this season (8 turnovers) while the Panthers have only given the ball away twice. This isn’t quite unstoppable force vs. immovable object, since we’re dealing with tiny sample sizes, but one of these trends will have to end. As mentioned earlier, it will be fascinating to see how Darnold looks without McCaffrey (and Arnold). Rookie tight end Tommy Tremble has flashed potential and could function as a new safety valve, but Jets fans can certainly attest that Sam Darnold can look quite pedestrian when he has little support. Meanwhile, the Panthers rank first in total, pass, and run defense and second in the NFL in scoring defense; however, they have not forced many turnovers (3 overall, tied for 17th). Is their solid defensive play a result of a weak schedule, or is this defense for real? Forcing more turnovers, even without Horn, who nabbed a pick in his second game, will be a major key for them moving forward.
FINAL ANALYSIS
For the Carolina Panthers, this game will be a great test for Sam Darnold to see how much he’s improved since leaving the Jets. If he puts up a strong showing on the road and without McCaffrey, he will have proven some doubters wrong. The undefeated Panthers can officially be crowned playoff contenders with a win in Dallas, but that may be too much of an ask with the recent injuries.
FINAL SCORE: DALLAS COWBOYS 37 CAROLINA PANTHERS 17
