This weeks Cowboys Patriots match-up will have a little extra significance for Cowboys fans. The last time the Dallas Cowboys beat the New England Patriots, Bill Clinton was in his first term as U.S. president. Troy Aikman led the way for the Cowboys in that game. As for the ageless Tom Brady? Well, believe it or not he was just an unknown college backup QB at Michigan at the time. His future team, New England, had yet to win a single NFL championship. That 12-6 victory on Dec. 12, 1996 came as the Cowboys were in the midst of defending their last Super Bowl title. So much has changed since then; America’s Team has yet to win another Super Bowl, let alone appear in an NFC championship game. The Cowboys have struggled through a malaise of bad coaching, tough-luck injuries, and poor performances. Meanwhile in New England, the Patriots have won six Super Bowls, establishing a long-term dynasty that Jerry Jones and his Cowboys seemed on the verge of creating in the 1990’s.
Beating New England has been a challenge for the Dallas Cowboys and many other teams over the years. Beating New England at Gillette Stadium has presented an even bigger obstacle. According to a recent report by time2play.com, since Gillette Stadium opened in 2002, the New England Patriots have enjoyed the highest home field winning % at in the entire league with an extraordinary record of 228-76. The Cowboys have never won a game in that stadium. In fact, the last time the Cowboys beat the New England Patriots in their house, Herschel Walker was the starting running back. Walker capped off a 173 yard rushing performance with a 60 yard walk off touchdown run in overtime that day. That was in 1987, two years before Jerry Jones became owner of the Cowboys and while Tom Landry was still the head coach of the football team. Suffice to say, Cowboy fans feel that they are long overdue for a win in New England.
Can Dallas turn the tide and snuff out the Patriots’ longtime win streak against them in a year the pendulum is seemingly swinging their way? Year two of the post-Brady era in New England has resulted in just two wins for the Pats. Last week, the once mighty Patriots barely held on to beat out the lowly Houston Texans and a rookie quarterback (Davis Mills). The Patriots own freshman signal-caller, Mac Jones, has been inconsistent while their offense has scored 25 points or less in every game this season. Compare that to the Dallas Cowboys, who average an NFC-high 34 points per game. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, et al., present a difficult challenge for even a legendary coach like Bill Belichick. Will the evil genius Belichick find a way to keep the Cowboys offense in check? Or, will they become the latest victim of a Dallas team gunning for not only a division title, but potentially home field advantage and a first round bye? Here are three things to watch for in Sunday’s Cowboys Patriots game:
1. WILL THE COWBOYS OFFENSE KEEP CLICKING ON ALL CYLINDERS?
After years of inconsistency, the Cowboys offense seems to have finally found its rhythm under offensive cordinator Kellen Moore. It helps that everyone is for the most party healthy on the starting offense and the amount of weapons the Cowboys have give them the appearance of a fantasy football team. Dak Prescott’s 116.9 quarterback rating is second in the NFC to only to Russell Wilson, who is now on IR with an injured finger. He’s thrown 10 touchdown passes in the last three games alone, turning the ball over only three times as Dallas continues to march down the field at will. As effective as Dak has been it’s the rushing offense that has really taken off for the Cowboys. The Cowboys rank 2nd in the NFL with 172.8 rushing yards per game behind a solid 1-2 punch of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Elliott, despite nursing a rib injury, leads the NFC with 452 yards and five touchdowns. Pollard is not far behind at 4th in rushing yards in the conference and leads the NFL with a 6.4 yards-per-carry average. The effectiveness of the run game has allowed Dallas to bulldoze opposing defensive fronts. The Patriots’ defense, despite being ranked fifth overall, is just 15th against the run. Expect Dallas to attack that vulnerability after piling up 201 yards in a 44-20 rout against the New York Giants last week. If the Cowboys can continue to dominate the line of scrimmage, it won’t matter what brilliant scheme Bill Belichick can come up with to stop them. The health of Tyron Smith, who has been playing at an All-Pro level, will be a vital factor for the Cowboys success in that regard as he battles a recurring neck injury.
2. MAC JONES vs A HOBBLED DALLAS SECONDARY
Jones has had the best two games of his young NFL career these past two weeks. Two weeks ago, Jones went toe-to-toe with Brady in his return to New England and tied Brady’s club record with 19 straight completions in that game. Last week, Jones led a 10-point, fourth-quarter comeback against the Texans. The final drive of that victory over the Texans went for 15 plays and was over seven minutes long. It wasn’t the prettiest drive, but it got the job done. That performance went a long way in building the rookie quarterback’s confidence as he continues to find his footing in the NFL. Injuries might give Jones a leg up this Sunday. Dallas standout cornerback Trevon Diggs, who leads the NFL with six interceptions, has been limited in practice with an ankle injury. He’s being called a “game-time decision” and is one of a handful of defenders questionable for Sunday. That list that includes two safeties, Damontae Kazee (hip) and Donovan Wilson (groin), and defensive end Randy Gregory who might also miss this one with a knee injury. I fully expect both Diggs and Gregory to play but they may be limited with their injuries. For Jones and the Patriots to have a chance, it is imperative that he protect the football. The Patriots do not have the offensive firepower to allow the Cowboys to score points off of turnovers. Mac Jones is a quick study, but he is a work in progress. The opportunistic Dallas defense could prove to a recipe for disaster for a young quarterback who still has much to learn.
THE LITTLE THINGS
Belichick has built a Hall of Fame career on doing all of the little things right. His teams aren’t usually flashy, dramatic, or cute, but they are always fundamentally sound. A Bill Belichick coached team rarely makes mistakes and always comes prepared. In addition to basic preparedness, Belichick is typically one step ahead of his competition. If there is a weakness to be exposed, he will expose it and exploit it. In comparison, Cowboys teams over the past decade have not excelled at those little things and have typically been behind the eight ball strategically. One area where Belichick’s teams have historically always seemed to get the job done is in the trenches. Belichick certainly understands the importance of winning at the line of scrimmage. That is one area that the Cowboys have had a lot of success so far in 2021. The Cowboys offensive line has given up just nine sacks, including two in the last two games. The team is converting on 51.6 percent of their third downs on offense, second in the NFL to Kansas City. That has helped the offense produce an incredible 26.4 first downs a game, also 2nd in the league. Compare that to the Patriots, producing just 19.6 first downs (22nd) and sitting dead last in Goal to Go percentage (42.86). That has contributed to dismal red zone numbers for the Patriots as they struggle to move the ball and close out drives. It doesn’t help when you’re playing from behind, either. The Pats have scored just 10 first-quarter points this year, all of them against the Jets. The Cowboys? They’ve scored 45, never trailing early in any of their games thus far. There is a clear correlation between playing with a lead and being able to run the ball often, but that in no way discounts the benefits of an effective ground attack. An effective ground game has allowed Dallas to control time of possession in games and limit offensive opportunities on the other side of the ball. Even with the advantage of playing with a lead, the success of the teams’ running game has only been made possible because the Cowboys have dominated in the trenches. Mike McCarthy deserves a lot of credit for his team being so much superior than the opposition in the trenches. Despite being criticised for some questionable time management and in game decisions (while praise is being heaped on his offensive and defensive coordinators), having a team that is prepared and continues to play at a high level is a reflection on the head coach. Credit should also be given to McCarthy for how well his teams have responded and adjusted in the second half of games. In their last three victories at home, the Cowboys were able to blow those games wide open in the second half when they were very close after two quarters of football.
FINAL PREDICTION
When it comes to coaching, the Cowboys have seemingly been at a distinct disadvantage against teams like the Patriots over the years. This may no longer be the case in 2021. The Patriots are a far cry from the team that won the Super Bowl less than three years ago and this is a different Cowboys team. Expect the Dallas Cowboys to come away with their first victory at New England since 1987. Despite the best efforts of Bill Belichick to stop Kellen Moore’s offense, the Cowboys will establish an early lead in this one and the Patriots will not be able to keep up. The only question I have is; How conservative will the Cowboys be with some of their injured starts heading into a bye week?
PREDICTION: DALLAS COWBOYS 34 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 17
*All Data and Statistics obtained and verified from www.profootballreference.com