After each losing on Thanksgiving Day, both the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints will each have a chance for redemption exactly one week later when they meet at the Caesars Superdome on Thursday night. Both teams have been slumping in recent weeks but the Cowboys are in much better shape thanks to their superior record and far weaker division. This is a must win game for the Saints if they wish to make a playoff push. It doesn’t qualify as a must win game for the Cowboys, but many feel that if they were to drop a third straight game (4 out of 5) then they will be completely out of the running for chance at the number one seed in the NFC East.
Fortunately for the Cowboys (7-4), they have finished their matchups with the AFC West. On Thanksgiving Day, Dallas dropped its third game against members of that division after initially beating the Los Angeles Chargers in week 2. The loss to the Raiders was the Cowboys’ third defeat in less than four weeks. A victory for the Cowboys on Thursday night should provide a much needed confidence boost for a team that has appeared to have lost some of its swagger recently.
The Saints meanwhile (5-6) only managed to score six points against the Bills in their Thanksgiving Day loss. That equaled their lowest total during Sean Payton‘s tenure with the team. The previous occasion occurred against the Houston Texans who held the Saints to just two field goals in Houston. That happened on Nov. 29, 2015, seemingly a lifetime ago. The New Orleans have now lost four in a row to fall below .500 for the first time this season. The four straight losses came after the Saints knocked off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in week 8 in an impressive victory with their backup quarterback. The Bucs were 5-2 after that victory and looked poised to contend in the NFC but now they are a desperate team which makes them a dangerous opponent.
The Cowboys lead the all-time series against the Saints with a 17-13 overall record, although the Saints hold a 9-6 advantage paying in New Orleans. The two franchises have faced each other eight times in the previous 12 seasons, with the Sean Payton and the Saints winning five of those matchups. The Cowboys will most likely be welcoming back several key players in this game such as CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and DeMarcus Lawrence. That should give the team a psychological boost but nothing can be taken for granted as evidenced when Dak Prescott returned to the lineup and fell flat against the Broncos. The Saints will also have some key players likely returning, namely star running back Alvin Kamara. Aside from those players potentially returning to the lineup for either team, here are a few other variables and how they might impact this game.
1 . How will the absence of key staff members affect the Cowboys?
The Cowboys will travel to New Orleans without head coach Mike McCarthy, offensive line coach Joe Philbin, assistant offensive line coach Jeff Blasko, and right tackle Terence Steele. All tested positive for COVID-19. They have already had to deal with eight other players and another assistant coach missing at least one game this season.
The Saints faced a similar problem in September when heading to play at Carolina. Eight assistant coaches had to miss the game against the Panthers, including five involved with the offense. Those absences contributed to the offense gaining only 159 yards and not scoring until the fourth quarter. As a result, they suffered a 26-7 defeat.
Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn will serve as Dallas’ head coach. He should be able to handle that role due to his 85 games of experience directing an NFL team. He led the Falcons to a 43-42 record from 2015 to ’20. He has plenty of experience coaching head-to-head against Payton, compiling a 4-6 record. The question for concerned Cowboys fans will be “How will this impact his performance as defensive coordinator?”
2.) Can Taysom Hill spark the Saints’ offense?
Trevor Siemian had started the four games since Jameis Winston‘s season-ending injury versus Tampa Bay. Since all of those ended in defeat, he has received much of the blame. His critics overlook the injuries plaguing a few starting offensive linemen, resulting in eight sacks and several pressures. He has been without the offense’s most valuable player (Alvin Kamara) in the last three contests. Additionally, the wide receivers have failed to step up in the absence of All-Pro Michael Thomas and have routinely dropped easily catchable passes. Nevertheless, Payton is looking for someone to re-energize the Saints’ offense. Enter Taysom Hill. Hill is expected to start instead of Siemian despite a lingering foot injury that has limited him to just seven games in his multi-purpose role during this season. This season, Hill has attempted only eight passes and completed seven of those for 56 yards, an interception, and no touchdowns. In 2020, he replaced Drew Brees over a four game stretch, completing 82 of 114 pass attempts for 834 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Cowboys defense has historically struggled against mobile quarterbacks in recent seasons and Hill has the ability to hurt them with them his legs. Statistically, the Cowboys have been more vulnerable through the air than on the ground this season. They rank 27th in the league with 262.3 passing yards allowed per game; However, they do rank third in the NFL with 15 interceptions, eight of which came from Trevon Diggs. Despite what those numbers say, the Cowboys have shown they can be exposed in the run game and their best run defender (Brent Urban) is officially out for the year. This game is a great opportunity for Hill to show whether he can be a starter going forward. It is also an opportunity for the Cowboys defense to establish themselves on run defense and against a quarterback who can threaten them on the ground.
3. Will the Cowboys lessen Ezekiel Elliot’s work load?
Elliott has been suffering from a bruised knee since the Week 4 win over Carolina in early October. His rushing contributions have declined over the course of the seven games after the injury. He racked up 253 yards and two scores on 41 yards in that game and the following game against the Giants. But, then he rushed 17 times for 69 yards at New England. He has tweaked that injury in subsequent weeks and often appears to be in great pain, frequently limping off the field and wincing in pain. Mike McCarthy had acknowledged, without disclosing any details, that Zeke has been banged up. His workload diminished in the next three games while his yardage peaked at 51. He carried the ball only nine times in each of the last two games for just 32 and 25 yards, respectively.
In contrast to the dip in run production, Zeke’s receiving statistics have increased, starting with that contest in New England. He had caught only nine passes in the five games before facing the Patriots. In New England, he hauled in seven passes for 50 yards in his most productive game as a receiver. In the five contests since then, he had at least three receptions for an average of 24.6 yards per game. Most of that production in the passing game came in situations where Zeke was the security blanket but he hasn’t been super effective in the open field while dealing with his injuries. Many fans are questioning why Tony Pollard, who is a capable back up and a threat in the passing game, hasn’t been given more opportunities to give Elliott a chance to rest. Many feel as though Tony Pollard has out-performed Elliott in each of his three years in Dallas. Pollard is averaging 5.3 yards per attempt, which is fifth in the NFL among players with at least 100 carries. No doubt that the numbers are skewed somewhat and if Pollard were asked to do all the things that Zeke does, his production level would dip but it is undeniable how much more effective and explosive a fresh Tony Pollard is than a battered and bruised Zeke. Many Cowboys fans even feel that Zeke should miss an entire game or two to rest his injuries. That could be more beneficial for both Zeke and the Cowboys in the long run than it would hurt them in the short term. A healthy and fresh Ezekiel Elliott is a necessary ingredient for the Cowboys if they wish to make a playoff run. Regardless of who gets the bulk of the work against the Saints on Thursday, they will have a tough challenge ahead against a defense who holds opponents to a league-low 3.4 yards per attempt.
Final analysis and Fearless Prediction:
Despite losses in three of their four most recent games, the Cowboys’ postseason aspirations are alive and well. They hold a two-game lead over Washington and a 2-0 record in divisional games. The Cowboys play Washington twice in the next three weeks following the game against New Orleans and have an opportunity to really close out the divisional race early. They still cannot afford to look past a Saints team that is challenging opponent at home despite recent struggles. The Saints’ hopes for the playoffs are fading so they should come out ready to play Thursday night in front of an energetic home crowd. They trail Tampa Bay in the NFC South by three games and currently sit on the outside looking in at the NFC playoff picture. I expect the Cowboys to rise to the challenge even with their skeleton coaching staff against this desperate Saints team. With the Cowboys top three wide receivers likely all back on the field together for the first time since week one; And, with an emotional leader in DeMarcus Lawrence returning (albeit on a limited snap count), the Cowboys are poised to bounce back. Look for the Cowboys to get back on track with a much needed win on the road VS the Saints.
Final Score : Dallas Cowboys 31 New Orleans Saints 21
