The Dallas Cowboys have won four more games than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season. The problem is that they play in the same NFC East division that produced this year’s top seed (the Philadelphia Eagles), whose 14-3 record was the best during the NFL’s regular season. That is why the 12-5 Cowboys will be the visiting team against the 8-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.
The Bucs, struggled on both sides of the ball and needed a fourth-quarter comeback against the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 just to win their division. Their 4-2 record within the NFC South ultimately made the difference against a trio of teams who could do no better than 7-10; But ,no matter how ragged the Bucs look coming in, no one wants to face the GOAT (Tom Brady) in what could potentially be his final NFL game. Brady still had a successful year, albeit a little below average by his standards. His 4,694 passing yards marked the third straight season in which he’s gone above 4,500 with Tampa Bay. He threw only nine interceptions which was the fewest he has thrown since joining the team in 2020. Brady also has a healthy Mike Evans at wide receiver, a connection that’s finally borne fruit once again during the past few weeks. Evans’ 207-yard, three-touchdown performance in Week 17 devastated both the Carolina Panthers and NFL fantasy football team owners everywhere as he reminded everyone why he’s one of the best wideouts in the NFL.
This will be second time these teams face off this season and third time in the past two years. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers won both of those contests including a dominating 19-3 victory in Dallas for the season opener. That was the game that Dak Prescott injured his thumb as the Cowboys struggled to do much of anything on offense (244 total yards, 3.8 yards per play). Brady didn’t light up the Dallas D (18-for-27, 212 yds., TD, INT) but Tampa got 127 rushing yards from Leonard Fournette and thoroughly dominated the Cowboys to get the road victory. The Bucs roster on paper does not look like a great matchup for the Cowboys but a lot has changed for both teams since that game in week 1. Here are three things to watch out for, as to how this game might unfold:
1. Can Dak Prescott outplay Tom Brady?
The Cowboys’ offense caught fire once Prescott returned from that Week 1 thumb injury. They ended the regular season 11th overall in total yards, fourth in points per game (27.5), and led the league with a 71.43 percent conversion rate in the red zone. It’s clear Prescott’s arm alone gives Dallas a better chance to win. But Prescott, especially within the last two months, has found himself prone to mistakes. In the last seven games alone, he’s thrown 11 interceptions, hurting his team in crunch time during games against inferior opponents like Jacksonville and Washington. Dak had his worst performance since the week 1 loss to Tampa Bay just last week. Not a great confidence builder heading into the playoffs. Brady in contrast has turned it on of late. Not to mention that he has enjoyed a level of post season success is unparalleled within the NFL. If Dak Prescott and the Cowboys continue to turn the ball over, Brady will no doubt take advantage and score points.
2. Will the Dallas Cowboys Defense make the big plays?
The Cowboy’s Defense stood out this season through their ability to get to the quarterback and to cause turnovers. Their 33 takeaways led the league, leading to a plus-10 turnover margin that was second only to the San Francisco 49ers. In the past six games alone, Dallas has forced 17 turnovers, including nine interceptions, while holding teams to less than six points on average during the fourth quarter. Recently though, their pass rush has been neutralized and All Pro Edge Rusher Micah Parsons has not registered a sack in several weeks while playing banged up. Parsons is still generating pressure and making plays but there is a limit to what one player can do. The Cowboys are hopeful that the defense should break through against the Bucs, who have struggled this season with a minus-two turnover margin. Tampa Bay has had at least one turnover in each of their last 6 games, often putting the team behind to depend on a Brady comeback during the second half. While the Cowboys are paper thin in the secondary after a rash of injuries, they will be welcoming back Leighton Vander Esch at linebacker and Carlos Watkins along with Jonathan Hankins on the interior defensive line. That could help take some pressure off of the struggling secondary that Brady is likely to expose if given time to sit in the pocket.
3. Which team will establish the ground game?
The combination of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott in the Dallas backfield has been exceptional for most of the season. The Cowboys finished the regular season ninth in the NFL in rushing offense. Tony Pollard went over the 1,000-yard mark, bypassing the aging Elliott with three 100-yard performances during the season (Elliott had none). They combined for 1,883 yards on the ground despite being virtually invisible or inactive during the past two games. The success of the running game has been crucial for the Cowboys success, especially when Dak Prescott missed 5 games earlier in the year. Tampa Bay’s 15th-ranked run defense could have their hands full but they had no issues shutting down the Cowboys ground game in their week 1 victory. Combine that with the injuries on the Cowboys offensive line and recent struggles in the run game and the Cowboys could be in trouble. By comparison, Leonard Fournette is the Buccaneers’ leading rusher with only 668 total yards but in the season opener against Dallas, Fournette ran for 127 yards, which is the second most given up by the Cowboys defense this season (Aaron Jones had 138 in Week 10). His longest run went for 17 yards and he finished with six yards per carry. Fournette may not be the first playmaker you think of when it comes to Tampa’s offensive attack but he could be a wild card in his own right that could make the difference on Monday night against a Cowboys team who has shown to be susceptible VS the run this season at times.
Finally Analysis and Fearless Prediction:
There’s a reason the NFL put this game on Monday night. It should be the most competitive of the six games during this “Super Wild Card Weekend.” It features America’s Team VS the GOAT Tom Brady. Dallas may be coming in with the better record, winning six of its last eight games, but the Cowboys don’t have a history of recent playoff success. They are also only 1-4 this season playing on grass VS playing on turf. You can’t discount Tampa Bay winning the Super Bowl just two years ago. You also can’t ignore that the Bucs have beaten Dallas in each of the last two regular-season meetings and Tom Brady has never lost to the Cowboys in his entire career; But, this is not the regular season and records are meant to be broken. I expect this one to be a dog fight. It will go back and forth all the way through to the fourth quarter but in the end, the Cowboys should pull this one out.
FINAL SCORE : DALLAS COWBOYS 35 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 28
*Photo by Joe Glorioso https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode
**All Data and statistics obtained and verified through https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
