With only a pair of games separating them atop the NFC East, the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Football Team will meet at FedEx Field on Sunday for the first of two meetings in three weeks. The timing of this match could not have come at a more ideal time in terms of entertainment value. These teams were headed in opposite directions before their respective byes. The Cowboys looked like they were going to wrap up the NFC East division title early without even having to break a sweat. Dallas was 5-1 but have gone 3-3 since then and their high powered offense has completely stalled after a red hot start. Meanwhile, the WFT was 2-6 but has now reeled off four straight wins and crept back within striking distance in the divisional race.
Of course, the Eagles are still in the race at 6-7, but all signs point to the NFC East title coming down to this game and the one in Dallas two weeks later. A Cowboys sweep would all but wrap things up. A Washington sweep puts them in the driver’s seat. A split? Well, that’s just a little more chaos and uncertainty for this crazy NFL season.
The Cowboys did not beat Washington in head coach Mike McCarthy’s first season in Dallas, dropping two games by a combined 66-19 margin. Despite his poor results from a year ago, McCarthy made a rather bold proclamation on Thursday when he told reporters, “We’re going to win this game. I’m confident in that.” Perhaps that is because he knows Dak Prescott is playing. Prescott holds a 7-1 career record against the WFT, and he did not play in either of those two losses last season. Did Washington need much more motivation to win a third straight against the Cowboys? Seems unlikely; But, if Washington can prove McCarthy wrong, it will have pulled something rare off: just a second win over Dak Prescott in nine chances.
Here are three things to watch for, which could determine how this game will unfold.
1. How effective will Dallas’ run game be?
The Cowboys have lightened Ezekiel Elliott‘s load recently because his right knee has been bothersome since October. He has admitted he’s not playing at 100 percent, and that’s evident in the numbers as well. Prior to the team’s Week 7 bye, Elliott was averaging 5.1 yards per carry on 17.0 carries per game. In the six games since, he’s down to 11.8 carries per game but is less efficient at 3.4 yards per attempt. That plan worked well in large part because of backup Tony Pollard, who has out-rushed Elliott on a per-carry basis in each of his three seasons. That will likely change now that Pollard is battling a foot injury and will be a game-time decision after missing practice. Whether Pollard plays or Dallas has to turn to Corey Clement and practice squad back Ito Smith to spell Elliott, the Cowboys have an uphill climb against this fearsome Washington front. Even without Chase Young in recent weeks, the Washington defense has shut down the opposition.
2. Can Taylor Heinicke avoid big mistakes?
Taylor Heinicke has exceeded expectations for the WFT after taking over for Ryan Fitzpatrick in the season opener, but one of his biggest downsides has been an overabundance of mistakes. His 2.8 percent interception rate is eighth worst in the NFL, and his 11 total picks are tied for fifth .
The big matchup to watch for will be Trevon Diggs vs. Terry McLaurin. Diggs leads the league with nine interceptions, but he also tends to get burned on big plays. His 14.5 yards allowed per completion is 29th highest in the league, while his 667 yards allowed is 23rd. McLaurin got the better of Diggs in their meetings last season and the star Cowboys corner will surely not have forgotten that. Preventing McLaurin from making big plays will be key because the rest of Washington’s receiving corps is fairly banged up. Tight end Logan Thomas is out for the year with a knee injury, and No. 2 wideout Curtis Samuel has been hurt throughout the season. Samuel remains limited in practice with a groin injury. Washington is 3-1 this season when Heinicke doesn’t throw an interception and 0-3 when he throws two. So, the winning formula is pretty clear for the home team.
3. Can Dak Prescott get back on track?
Dak Prescott has once again been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks this season. His101.7 passer rating ranks seventh and his 288.8 yards per game rank fifth; But, his season can really be split into two halves since he missed Week 8 with a right calf strain. In his first six games (pre-injury), Prescott eclipsed eight yards per attempt five times and had 16 touchdowns to four interceptions. In the five games since his injury, he has only topped eight yards per attempt just once and has seven TDs to four picks. His yards per game have fallen from 302.2 to 271.4, and his rushing threat has almost completely disappeared during that period. Sunday represents a chance for Prescott to get back on track. Although the Cowboys’ ground game is banged up, his receiving corps looks like it’s fully ready to go with CeeDee Lamb (concussion), Amari Cooper (COVID-19), and Michael Gallup (calf) set for full workloads. If those three stay healthy, it will be the first time all season that Dak has had all three of his starting wide receivers for an entire game in 2021. On that note, Washington has been an easy target in the passing game, ranking 30th in the NFL at 263.9 yards allowed per game this season. Those numbers are down to 218.3 in the four games since the bye, but this remains a beatable secondary.
Final Analysis and Fearless Prediction:
Washington has a chance to make this divisional race interesting, but the team just doesn’t have the horses to keep up with Dallas’ passing game. Assuming Prescott gets back to his usual self, which he looked the part in the first half of last weeks victory against the Saints, the WFT won’t stand a chance. Defensively, the Cowboys may be vulnerable. Maybe versatile Washington running back Antonio Gibson can burn the Cowboys, as he did twice last season, but Heinicke’s propensity for mistakes will likely be a deciding factor against this ball-hawking Dallas D.
Final Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 35 Washington Football Team 17
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