For months there has been speculation the Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks would come to an agreement on an Earl Thomas trade. The rumours began after Thomas made some controversial post game comments on Christmas Eve and had steadily gained steam ever since the two teams came close to a deal during the NFL draft in April. All along the speculation has been that the Seahawks were demanding a 2nd round pick and the Cowboys would not give up more than a 3rd and that is what was keeping the two sides apart. That changed earlier today when the Cowboys caved and offered Seattle the 2nd round pick they had asked for. Shockingly, the Seahawks turned down the deal leaving Cowboy fans everywhere heart broken and bewildered.
First of all, the Seahawks are crazy to turn down such a deal. Earl Thomas is a special player, probably a future hall of famer, but the Hawks can’t afford to pay him what he wants after they secured the services of Russell Wilson long term. The most likely scenario is that Thomas plays out the remainder of his contract and signs with another team as a free agent next season. If that does happen, Seattle would likely receive a compensatory draft pick but probably no more than a mid 3rd pick. If Thomas were to get injured this season, that could affect his market value and the Seahawks would receive even less value than that. Seattle had won the standoff. The Cowboys had caved given their desperate situation at safety and reluctantly offered up a 2nd round pick. Now, the Seahawks have likely blown their chance to obtain maximum value for their aging superstar safety.
As disappointing as this news is for Cowboy fans, it may be the best thing for them to miss out on landing Thomas. Earl Thomas is 30 years old. He has won a Super Bowl and has nothing left to prove in his career. If the Cowboys were to secure Thomas and sign him to a long term deal, he would likely demand a substantial amount of guaranteed money. That would translate into more dead money for a team that has made a habit of mismanaging their salary cap space. The Cowboys have spent years trying to free up some cap space and they are finally getting to a comfortable spot but don’t forget, DeMarcus Lawrence, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott will soon be in line for long term deals. Aside from those guys there are some other key players that are nearing the end of their contracts such as Byron Jones and La’el Collins. Using up the cap space that they have generated now, could result in some difficult decisions towards the future of the franchise.
Do not expect a team friendly deal either. Earl Thomas is a life long Dallas Cowboy fan but Earl Thomas is a smart guy. Personal preferences aside, Thomas knows that this is his best opportunity to secure his financial future. He also knows that the sport he excels at is a young mans game and that it is hard on the body. Thomas had considered retiring after his last significant injury and chances are he may not play out any contract the Cowboys offer him if his body begins to deteriorate. At 30 years old, that is a highly likely scenario.
Back in April, the Seahawks had demanded a 2nd round pick for Thomas and the Cowboys refused that offer. It is fortunate the Cowboys were able to hold on their 2nd round pick this year and draft Connor Williams. That is more evident now that the the OL depth has been exposed as a real concern for the Cowboys. The 2019 2nd round pick will be no less valuable. This team has been built through the draft and they understand the value of draft picks. A 2nd round pick for a 30 year old rental is far to high of price to pay regardless of how desperate the situation is at safety. The Seahawks have seemingly gotten greedy in the wake of the Khalil Mack deal but remember Mack is in his prime and is a pass rusher. Pass rushers are a commodity but safeties appear to be a devalued position in this era of football.
The bottom line now is that many of us Cowboy fans believed that an Earl Thomas trade would take place before week 1 of the regular season. That may not be the case now but this saga is far from over. I have a feeling that this deal will still get done in the coming weeks. Hopefully it will be Seattle who comes to their senses and not Jerry Jones offering up even more than he already has.
*Photo by Kieth Allison https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode