Is Tony Romo worthy of the Hall of Fame?

There is no one athlete in the history of pro-sports that is as polarizing to a team’s fan base than Tony Romo.  If you are a Dallas Cowboys fan, you either love him or hate him and there is nothing in between.  One subject that is more hotly debated among Cowboy fans than any other is whether or not Tony Romo belongs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.  Loyal Tony Romo fans will tell you that he is a sure fire first ballot hall of famer while his staunchest critics will laugh at even the thought of such a wild claim.  Here I aim to settle the debate with an objective and rational evaluation of all the arguments from both sides and to answer the question…Is Tony Romo a Hall of Famer?

First let us consider the argument for.  Tony Romo’s career was cut short due to his chronic back injuries however that did not prevent him from breaking every single major passing record in Dallas Cowboys franchise history.  He owns the single season and career records for TD’s, yards and passer rating (minimum 100 attempts).  A little known fact to non-Cowboy fans is that Tony Romo has the 4^th highest passer rating of All-Time!  He was voted to multiple pro-bowls, voted to the NFL’s top 100 list four times and finished 3^rd in voting for the 2014 NFL MVP award.  While Romo is often criticized for his poor playoff record, lack of a championship and his reputation as a choke artist; his supporters will be quick to remind you that he is also the franchise leader in 4th quarter comebacks with 24 and has produced 29 game winning drives, which is more than even Joe Montana.  They may also point out that although Romo did not win a championship that he did not play on a championship calibre team.  Moreoever, the Dallas Cowboys were a far less effective team when Tony Romo was not under centre.  That was never more apparent than it was in 2015.  That season the Cowboys started 2-0 with Romo but finished 4-12 after he missed time with injury with Matt Cassell and Brandon Wheedon at the helm.  Romo’s resume is certainly impressive, and worthy of the Dallas Cowboys Ring of Honor I might add, but is it Hall of Fame worthy?

It should be noted that while Romo does hold every major passing record in franchise history, passing statistics are grossly inflated during his era compared to that of his predecessors such as Troy Aikman and Roger Staubach.  New rules have been put in place that protect the quarterback, limit pass interference and a defenders ability to hit defenseless receivers.  Coaching advancements in the passing game and the implementation of technology on the field and on the sidelines allow for QB’s to diagnose defenses and make quicker adjustments.  Add the additional advantage of receivers and tight ends with freakish size and athleticism that make defensive backs powerless against the back shoulder fade routes.  All of these factors have contributed to the recent explosion in passing stats.  For example in 1984 when Dan Marino threw for over 5000 yards, that number was unheard of.  Marino’s record stood for almost 30 years but since then 5000 yards passing has been exceeded on 8 different occasions and all within the last decade!

Passer rating, which Tony Romo ranks as 4^th All-Time, is another statistic that has inflated as the passing game has evolved.  There was a time when achieving a passer rating of over 100 was a rare feat as it was only accomplished 28 times in over 50 years.  Since the millennium that milestone has been achieved 72 times more in the NFL.  Not only are passer rating statistics on the rise but it is evident that it is becoming an ever more convoluted measure for QB performance.  It is measure that is intended to grade QB performance across all statistics but it consistently produces outliers among the leaders in that category.  Some of the players that have been among league leaders in single season passer rating are Sam Bradford, Alex Smith, Chad Pennington and Brian Griese.  Among the top 20 All-Time leaders in passer rating are Chad Pennington, Matt Shaub, Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton.  No disrespect to any of those guys but clearly passer rating alone does not determine which QB’s belong in the Hall of Fame.

Since passer rating is an undependable measure and Romo’s franchise leading passing statistics are skewed due to the era he has played in, we must explore another basis for his Hall of Fame resume.  During his career, Tony Romo has played alongside some Hall of Fame quality quarterbacks.  There are at least 4 who I consider to be first ballot Hall of Famers and they are Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.  In order to determine if Romo is also Hall of Fame worthy, it only makes sense to compare him to the best QB’s of his generation.

Tony Romo’s passer rating is comparable to the other QB’s in that elite group but he certainly does not come close in any of them in all of the other categories.  Throwing for a lot of yards and TD’s is certainly a big part of a QB’s job but the most important part of their job is winning football games.  Let’s evaluate how Romo compares to the same group in that crucial measure.

Tony Romo holds his own in terms of regular season winning percentage but where he fails to measure up is during the post season where he is the only QB among that group to have a losing record in the playoffs.  This is a key statistic because it is during the playoffs where the competition is greatest, where championships are won, and where Hall of Fame legends are made.

It holds true that some critics overvalue the weight of championships with regards to Hall of Fame consideration.  Football is the ultimate team sport and one man, not even a QB, can win a championship on his own.  Dan Marino is the prime example of an elite QB who never won a championship.  Marino is considered by some to be the greatest passer to ever play the game.  He may not have won championships but his individual performances were enough to earn him a spot in the Hall of Fame.  Brady, Manning, Rodgers and Brees have all won Super Bowls but how does Tony Romo compare to those QB’s in terms of individual accolades and accomplishments?

In terms of individual awards and accolades, Tony Romo does not come close to the other great QB’s of his generation.  Furthermore, Tony Romo has only ever led the league in one statistic his entire career (passer rating 2014).  Meanwhile, the other guys have led the league in multiple categories on multiple occasions as is illustrated in the chart below.

With regards to championships and individual statistics when compared to the elite QB’s of his generation Tony Romo does not have the resume to justify a Hall of Fame induction.  There is one more thing to consider.  I had previously touched upon Romo’s reputation as a player that chokes during the big games.  I had also presented evidence to the contrary that he is in fact one of the better 4^th quarter QB’s by virtue of his 24 career 4^th Quarter comebacks and 29 career game winning drives.  How reliable is that statistic in determining how clutch a quarterback actually is?

To put that number in perspective consider that Roger Staubach a.k.a “Captain Comeback” only has 13 career comebacks and 21 game winning drives to his credit.  Then consider that Aaron Rodger’s has accumulated only 11, 4^th quarter comebacks and 17 game winning drives during his career.  That is the same Aaron Rodgers who broke the hearts of Cowboys fans three times in the past few years (twice in the playoffs).  It is also the same Aaron Rodgers who at one point was chucking up and converting Hail Mary passes on nearly a weekly basis.  Is Tony Romo more of a clutch player than Roger Staubach and Aaron Rodgers?  Perhaps quantity is being measured above quality here.  As a matter of fact one of Romo’s 4^th quarter comebacks took place in Buffalo in 2007.  Tony Romo threw 5 interceptions that game but the Cowboys were fortunate enough to recover a fumble after a botched onside kick and then Nick Folk kicked a 53 yard FG as time expired.  Romo earned the credit for a 4^th quarter comeback but in reality the Cowboys won despite his horrendous game.  That is one example of how the 4^th quarter comeback statistic does not tell the whole story.

One thing that fans tend to remember as much as 4^th quarter comebacks are the botched plays and backbreaking interceptions that cost games.  Romo had his fair share of those from the fumbled field goal attempt in the playoffs against Seattle to the game sealing interception against RGIII’s Redskins in 2012.  What about the epic collapses such as at home against the Lions in 2011 up 27-3 at halftime, 2008 in Pittsburgh when a 10 point lead was erased after 2 picks led to 14 unanswered points for the Steelers and don’t forget blowing a 23 point lead to Matt Flynn’s Packers in 2013.  Did you know that Tony Romo has blown leads of 10+ pts 11 x’s in his career and also owns the distinction of blowing the 2 biggest leads in franchise history?  To be fair, Tony Romo does not play defense so he can’t take all the the blame for those defeats but in the examples above his mistakes certainly contributed.  What if there was a statistic to measure blown saves in football?

If there were such a measure and you compared Tony Romo to that same elite group of QB’s as before you would find the following:

Those numbers alone do not paint as accurate a picture when you consider that Tony Romo has played the fewest amount of career games of all of those players.  Brady, Brees and Manning have played almost twice as many regular season games as Tony Romo and far more postseason games as well.  It is more accurate then to measure the frequency of blown 4^th quarter leads measured as a percentage of total games played.

When you calculate the frequency it demonstrates what would appear obvious to Tony Romo’s critics.  Romo has the highest frequency of blown 4^th quarter leads both in the regular season and the playoffs then any of those great QB’s.  While the truly elite QB’s tend to find a way to win, Romo more often tended to find a way to lose.  At least more often than those sure fire hall of famers did.  So strip away the championships, the statistics and all the individual accolades and if Hall of Fame worthiness can be determined by that measure alone; Then Tony Romo is not worthy of induction into Pro Football Hall of Fame.

The Hall of Fame is reserved only for the truly elite of the sport.  There can only be a handful that ascend to that pinnacle for every generation and Tony Romo is a tier below the likes of Brady, Manning, Rodgers and Brees.  That is not an indictment against Tony Romo though.  Love him or hate him, there is no denying that he was a great franchise quarterback and he provided Cowboys fans with some memorable moments along with some magical victories.  He will for the most part be remembered fondly among Cowboy fans and deservedly so.

*Photo by (c) Kenneth D Durden | Dreamstime.com.LLC

All Data and Statistics obtained and verified from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/