It has always been a well known fact that there is mutual interest between the owner of the Dallas Cowboys Jerry Jones and former New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton. So when the rumors and speculation began following the Cowboys first round exit from the playoffs, it surprised no one. Now that Sean Payton has actually stepped down from the Saints head coaching job, and Jerry Jones publicly conveyed disappointment in his coaching staff, those rumors have gone into overdrive. As a result, once again the Dallas Cowboys are the hottest topic in the NFL despite being eliminated from the playoffs.
This is beginning to become all too familiar for Cowboys fans. Whether it is trade rumours such as those involving Earl Thomas or Jamal Adams, coaching hires, or contract negotiations, the team always seems to drag out these storylines for the entire offseason. In a profession where off the field distractions can often impact on field production, it is less than ideal and it has become rather tiresome for most of the fanbase.
First of all, let’s review whether Mike McCarthy actually deserves to lose his job in the first place. Many Cowboys fans, myself included, were not overly excited about the McCarthy hire. Despite his Super Bowl winning resume, he came with plenty of baggage and doubt after being fired from the Packers and sitting out an entire year. Despite his shortcomings, his overall resume was impressive and he was considered a clear improvement over Jason Garrett. Jason Garrett had an unusually long tenure for a coach that never made the playoffs in back to back seasons or even appeared in a conference championship game. Mike McCarthy was hired to get the Cowboys over that hump. To do what Jason Garrett could not do, and that is to achieve sustained success. Almost any coach can have a great season or two in a league with as much parity as the NFL, but not all of them can build upon the success they attain year after year. Mike McCarthy came in in 2020 in the midst of a global pandemic and had to endure the loss of this starting quarterback. That year season was considered a write off for most fans and McCarthy got a free pass as a result. As a result, the 2021 season became the measuring stick. Despite the disappointing conclusion to the season and the first round exit, overall it was a very successful season. The team finished with a 12-5 record, won the division and made the playoffs. Putting aside the fanbase’s sometimes unrealistic expectations, McCarthy has achieved some level of success as the Dallas Cowboys head coach. Year three now becomes the pivotal year for Mike McCarthy. This is when we can find out if he can build upon his success or achieve some level of sustained success. The seat was already hot for McCarthy before all of this Sean Payton talk, but there is no question that he deserves another opportunity for the 2022 season.
Now let’s explore whether Sean Payton would actually be an improvement over Mike McCarthy. Most of us fans would agree that he would be. That may simply be because we tend to overvalue what other teams have and undervalue what our own team has, but it remains true regardless. Ignoring general opinions on both coaches there are some striking similarities. Both have an impressive regular season record over their careers. Mike McCarthy has 143-92-2 record (608%) while Sean Payton has a slightly better 152-89 record (631%). It should be noted though that Mike McCarthy has the better post season record (10-8) compared to Sean Payton (8-9). As far as their weaknesses, Mike McCarthy is often questioned for his poor decisions in relation to game management, especially involving the game clock. Sean Payton has also had some issues in this area although he has not been as publicly criticized on that front. Perhaps the only reason for that is because of the teams they have coached up to this point and the different media presence or national media market influence in those areas. I do often wonder how Cowboys fans would react if Sean Payton were to fail while taking some of those tremendous risks he has earned a reputation for, if he was the head coach in Dallas. Another strike against Mike McCarthy that his critics love to point out is how he has only won a single Super Bowl while coaching Hall of Fame quarterbacks his entire career (Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers). Sean Payton has also only won a single Super Bowl with a Hall of Fame Quarterback at the helm (Drew Brees). One thing Sean Payton does not have in common with Mike McCarthy is that Payton was never fired from New Orleans. Another point for Sean Payton is that unlike McCarthy, his team has a winning record playing without Drew Brees. Mike McCarthy on the other hand, has not experienced any success with quarterbacks not named Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers. For those two reasons highlighted above, I will concede that Sean Payton would in fact be an improvement over Mike McCarthy.
So far, I have determined that although Mike McCarthy does not deserve to lose his job, hiring Sean Payton would be an upgrade. Now comes the tricky part. Just because Sean Payton is no longer the head coach of the New Orleans Saints, that doesn’t mean that the Cowboys could just go ahead and hire him. The Cowboys would likely have to compensate the New Orleans Saints if they hired Sean Payton. Using previous examples such as Jon Gruden, Bill Belichick, Bill Parcells, Mike Holmgren, and Herm Edwards, that would include multiple draft picks in addition to a potentially large cash settlement. That would be true whether they wanted to hire him this season or next season. Would it be worth it to sacrifice draft picks for a slight improvement at the head coaching spot? Perhaps the subsequent loss of on the field talent would negate any advantage. Maybe the Cowboys could end up being even worse off altogether. On top of that, would Sean Payton truly be a good fit in Dallas? Sean Payton has carte blanche in New Orleans as far as football operations are concerned. Will Jerry and Stephen Jones really allow Sean Payton to build and manage the team as he sees fits, or will there be tension and second guessing? The same concerns were brought up when Jerry Jones hired Bill Parcells. Although both parties claim it was a great working relationship, there are still those who believe there was some underlying tension. Ultimately, the goal of winning the Super Bowl eluded the Cowboys during Parcells tenure with the team.
Lastly, there is one other major pressing issue with this whole Sean Payton situation. Payton stated that he will not be coaching this season at all. Not in New Orleans and not anywhere else. For those Cowboys fans who are urging Jerry Jones to go out and hire Payton immediately, that appears not to be an option. That will likely be the case no matter how much money Jerry could offer to throw in Payton’s direction. Money talks but it doesn’t say everything. If the man intends to take a year or two off and spend time with his family, that is exactly what he is going to do. If Jerry Jones intends to wait it out and hire Sean Payton as soon as he becomes available, that leaves Mike McCarthy and the Dallas Cowboys in a rather awkward situation. We already know that Mike McCarthy is going to be firmly seated on the hot seat next season. That alone threatens to be something of a distraction for the Cowboys as it will inevitably be brought up in press conferences leading up to the season, in camp, and throughout the season if the Cowboys struggle even just a little. Now, compound that with the presence of Sean Payton looming in the background. Mike McCarthy won’t simply just be on the hot seat, he will literally be keeping Sean Payton’s seat warm sitting in as a lame duck coach. That type of dynamic is almost to sure to impact performance in a negative way. At that point, what can Mike McCarthy do to save his job? Winning the division and making the playoffs isn’t enough. Will it be NFC Championship game or bust? Will it be Super Bowl or bust? Will it not matter how far the team makes it if they get embarrassed at any point in the post season?
Pressure can often bring out the best in people; but, more often than not, too much pressure is unhealthy. Overcoming adversity can make you stronger, but there is a breaking point for how much adversity any one person or any one team can handle. Once that breaking point is reached, there is no coming back from it and the season will be lost. If that does happen, who is to blame then? Is it the head coach? That would be the most obvious scape goat in this scenario; but, then what happens if Sean Payton does get hired the following year and he fails too? Do we then blame the players? Better yet, do we pin it all on yet another quarterback? What if before long another 27 years go by without a Super Bowl or a championship game appearance? What then? At some point the circus has to stop and ownership must come to terms with the fact that they are the ones who are failing. I sincerely hope that I am wrong to despair and that my concerns are all baseless and unfounded; but, history has proven otherwise. All of the rumors, headlines, and offseason drama are great for business; but the organization doesn’t appear any closer to the ultimate goal at the current trajectory.
*Photo by Joe Glorioso All-Pro Reels https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/2.0/legalcode