Of all the unrestricted free agents carrying over from the Dallas Cowboys 2019 roster, there are three that are the biggest priorities and will demand the highest market value. Those players are Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, and Byron Jones. None of these players will be easy to replace and some would argue that the Dallas Cowboys have enough cap space to resign all of them. Regardless of that, it appears that the front office is prepared to let at least one of these players go. It will not be the quarterback. As much as some fans believe that Dak Prescott is asking for too much money or that the former 4th round pick is replaceable. Replacing Dak Prescott is clearly not what the Dallas Cowboys intend to do and they have made it clear that signing Dak is their number one priority. After Dak, it would appear that there is a choice between Amari Cooper and Byron Jones and Stephen Jones has made it known which one of those players will be the odd man out:
Are Stephen and Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys making the right call here? One thing is certain; Amari Cooper is the more dynamic player. He has routinely made big plays and has emerged as the trusted number one target for Dak Prescott. After acquiring Amari Cooper from the Raiders in 2018, a struggling Dak Prescott immediately improved and led the Cowboys to the divisional round of the playoffs. Last season the Cowboys missed out on the playoffs but Dak Prescott put up career best numbers passing while Cooper had a second straight Pro-Bowl season with Dallas. While Amari Cooper has been making explosive plays offensively, Byron Jones has struggled to do the one thing that is expected of a top tier defensive back and that is create turnovers. Byron Jones has only recorded 2 interceptions in his entire 5 year career with the Dallas Cowboys.
Byron Jones has not been the big play guy that Amari Cooper has been but he does have the edge in terms of his consistency. Byron Jones may not get turnovers, but ever since he switched over from safety to cornerback in 2018 he has developed into one of the top shutdown corners in the entire NFL. Bryon Jones shows up week in and week out he held his own against some of the best receivers in the league. Amari Cooper meanwhile has struggled with consistency throughout his career and last year notably struggled on the road where he caught nearly twice as many passes (52 to 27), for more than twice as many yards (869 to 320), and nearly double the touchdown’s (5 to 3) at home versus on the road.
So Amari Cooper is the more dymanic player and Bryon Jones the more consistent but both are valuable. As such, both will demand top of the market price on the open market if allowed to reach free agency. The Dallas Cowboys are clearly a team who wants to win now so if either player were to depart, they would still want to replace them with a player who can fill in immediately and get nearly the same production but at a much lower cost. That rules out free agency. or at least the prime free agent targets. If the Dallas Cowboys are not willing to dish out a long term contract to retain their own stars, they would not pay a premium for another free agent. There are many examples in NFL history where spending money on bringing in another free agent to a new team and environment result in total and complete failure. That is the case for both wide receivers (ex. Andre Rison, David Boston, Javon Walker) and cornerbacks ( ex. Nnamdi Asomugha, Larry Brown, Byron Maxwell). If the Dallas Cowboys do look to free agency they would be trying to find bargain signings after the initial free agency frenzy period instead of paying top dollar. Typically these would be short term deals such as they did last season when they landed Randall Cobb. When bargain shopping, typically the only options are older players, players coming off of injuries, or players that have under performed. To reiterate, it is highly unlikely that the Dallas Cowboys will be able to replace either their number one wide receiver or their number one cornerback in free agency without spending the amount of money they would have to in order to retain those guys anyway. It is thus equally unlikely in both cases to replace Byron Jones or Amari Cooper with a bargain free agent signing.
Another possibility is to acquire replacements via trade the same way the Dallas Cowboys acquired Amari Cooper in the first place. Since 2010, there have been 62 trades in the NFL involving wide receivers. Of those 62 trades, in only 11 instances has it resulted in teams getting an immediate and significant impact[1] from those wide receivers. That is a rate of 17.7% and in almost all of those cases, the price paid to acquire a wide receiver capable of making an immediate impact was very high such as the 1st round draft pick the Dallas Cowboys spent for Amari Cooper. The percentage of getting a player who can make a significant and immediate impact is even lower for cornerbacks. During that same time frame, there were 50 trades involving cornerbacks and in only 6 of those did a team acquire a cornerback who made a significant and immediate impact. That is paltry 12%. Again, just as it was for the wide receivers, it typically is expensive to acquire a cornerback with the potential to make a significant and immediate impact. It is not likely that the Dallas Cowboys will be able to acquire a replacement for either Amari Cooper or Byron Jones through trade but there appears to be a slightly higher chance of getting a wide receiver who can contribute immediately in this way.
So if free agency or trade are not viable options, the only alternative would be for the Dallas Cowboys to replace those players in the draft. The NFL draft is far from a sure thing. It is highly unpredictable and players often either succeed or fail based on different schemes, different systems, different coaches, and playing in different environments. Despite that, the NFL draft is the easiest and most tried and true method of replacing talent among NFL franchises. This can be accomplished in all seven rounds but typically the highest rate of success is with the first round draft picks. Since 2010, there have been 34 wide receivers drafted in the 1st round and 38 cornerbacks. The average draft slot of both the WR’s and the CB’s is 15.7 which is in the range of the Dallas Cowboys who select 17th overall in 2020. In comparison, there have been 28 quarterbacks drafted in the first round in that same time frame but the average draft slot for that position is 8.7. Consequently, anyone who thinks that the Cowboys can just draft a quarterback in the first round to replace Dak Prescott should be aware of the fact that it would take a boatload of assets (which the Dallas Cowboys do not have) in order to procure a top 10 pick, especially in a year with a loaded top end QB class. However, the Dallas Cowboys are right within range of drafting one of the top cornerback or wide receiver prospects in the 2020 draft. In the past decade, of the other teams that have drafted wide receivers in the first round, 12 of the 34 have made significant and immediate impacts. Often, even great WR’s take at least one year before they break out just like Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant did. Still, that is a success rate of 35% which is significantly higher than the success rate of trading for a WR. As for the cornerbacks, of the 38 selected in the 1st round since 2010, 21 of them were significant contributors in year one. That is a staggering success right of 55% compared to that of WR’s. For a team like the Dallas Cowboys who are in win now mode, that is a significant difference. Maybe that is why the Dallas Cowboys appear ready to let Bryon Jones walk in free agency instead of taking their chances with Amari Cooper. Maybe it is simply because of the lack of interceptions and the focus on turning the ball over on defense. Whatever the reason may be, the Dallas Cowboys front office believe that Bryon Jones is more replaceable than Amari Cooper therefore the cornerback position has now jettisoned into a top priority for the NFL draft.
[1] immediate and significant impact: The criteria is to start or play significant minutes in the vast majority of games (12-16) in year one and to achieve above average statistical production for the position group during that season.
*Photo by Joe Glorioso All-Pro Reels https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/2.0/legalcode
**All data and statistics obtained and verified from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
