Last Sunday against the Houston Texans the Dallas Cowboys had an opportunity to march down the field and win the game in overtime. They had driven to the Texans 42 yard line and facing a 4th and a yard Jason Garrett elected to punt and give Houston the ball back. That decision proved to be the wrong one and the Dallas Cowboys ended up losing the game on the ensuing Houston drive. The decision to punt or to go for it in that situation is a virtual coin toss but in the end coaches are judged on the end result. Jason Garrett has taken a lot of heat for that decision. A decision not to trust the offense who lost yardage on the previous 3rd and 1 play and squandered several opportunities to win the game earlier. A decision to trust the defense who had played well but then allowed the Texans to drive the length of the field and kick a chip shot FG to win it. Yes, there were many reasons to justify Garrett’s decision and he may have been influenced by his fellow coaches, but it is he alone that must shoulder the blame. The question that now remains is “will this decision get Jason Garrett fired?”
One decision does not usually cost a coach his job but Jason Garrett is so firmly in the hot seat after years of mediocrity and playoff failures that such a decision could be catastrophic. After finishing 13-3 behind rookie sensation QB Dak Prescott in 2016, Garrett had reached his pinnacle. With success breeds expectations and last year the Cowboys came crashing down to earth. They missed the playoffs and their offensive struggles combined with Dak Prescott’s regression led to a massive shuffling of assistants and position coaches while Garrett and offensive coordinator Scott Linehan were retained. The roster was reshuffled as well and the term “Dak friendly” was used to describe the direction the team was going. So far the “Dak friendly” experiment is a complete failure. The Cowboys are 2-3 and still in the mix for the division but the offense and particularly the passing game has looked so bad that it has become clear that changes need to be made in the off season and that may start with the coaches. Jerry Jones, who has been Jason Garrett’s biggest supporter over the years has finally questioned his head coach and all it took was that crucial 4th down call in OT.
#Cowboys Jerry Jones on Garrett not going for it on 4th-&-1: ‘Not second-guessing, But … We just were being outplayed. It’s time for risk at that particular time.’ pic.twitter.com/0R9ucxKzWb
— mike fisher ✭ (@fishsports) October 8, 2018
Jerry Jones did back track on that statement to a degree but in a moment following an emotional loss he publicly called out his coach on what he perceived to be a poor decision. Did Jerry Jones show his hand there? Will Garrett be fired after the season or if the losing continues will Jones pull the trigger even before that?
Jerry Jones was not the only one critical of Garret’s decision as Dallas Cowboy fans and members of the media have voiced their opinions on the matter as well. It is easy to judge a decision after seeing the end result but I admit that I too had hoped that the Cowboys would go for it on that 4th down play. The Cowboys were in Houston territory at the time. Even if the defense was able to force the Texans to punt it would have been difficult for the Cowboys offense to get back to the same spot the way they were moving the ball. Going for it on 4th down would also have been favourable statistically. So far in 2018 teams have gone for it on 4th down 151 times and converted 57% of those opportunities. The Dallas Cowboys have successfully converted 4 out their 6 4th down attempts (67%). The Cowboys only needed to gain 1 and 1/2 yards to get that first down. In 2018, in situations where teams have gone for it on 4th down with only between 0-2 yards to go the success rate increases to 75% and the Dallas Cowboys are a perfect 3 for 3 in such opportunities this season.
Despite the statistical data, there is a fair argument to justify the punt in that situation based on how well (or not well) the Cowboys were running the ball in that game and factoring in that they lost a yard on the previous 3rd and short. For me though, the decision not to go for it goes beyond statistics. The decision to punt the ball away was more psychologically damaging than anything else. Here you have a team who is struggling offensively. A team that needs a spark, a boost, something to build their confidence. You also have a coach who is fighting to keep his job. In such a desperate situation, is it not the time for risk taking? I think Jerry Jones was on to something there. Garrett had the confidence to elect to receive the ball in OT and yet when it came to going for it on 4th down, something he has not hesitated to do in the past, he suddenly lost his faith in his offense. That lack of faith is the biggest indictment on Garrett’s coaching future. The writing may have already been on the wall but that decision to punt in OT which ultimately lost the game was the straw that broke the camels back. The Cowboys are not out of it yet and I don’t think they will implode and lose 10-12 games but that game and that decision may end up costing them a playoff spot and Jason Garrett’s job.
*All statistical data obtained and verified from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/splits.htm#all_down_splits
*Photo by Kieth Allison https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode