How quickly do fortunes change in the National Football League? Dak Prescott went from being the 8th QB drafted in 2016 and fighting for a roster spot to winning the offensive rookie of the year award. He led the Cowboys to a 13-3 record in relief of an injured Tony Romo and earned the most prestigious job in all of professional sports… the starting quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys. That 2016 season is a distant memory now as Dak Prescott has really struggled to lead the 25th ranked offense in the league (30th in passing). While ranking offenses is based on yards and that can often be deceiving, the 2018 Dallas Cowboys have looked every bit the part of painfully inept offensive team. Dak has had his doubters ever since he took over as the starter but now even some of his staunchest supporters are wondering…Is Dak Prescott a franchise QB?
How did we get to this point from that magical 2016 season? First of all it should be noted that the 2016 season was impressive but was also a bit of a mirage. Dak played very well but was also very fortunate at times and his incredible touchdown to interception ration was reflective of that. Every bounce seemed to go the Cowboys way and their confidence grew with each week. The run game was dominant and the Cowboys could get aggressive with play calling. It was clear from the start the Dak Prescott was not the most accurate passer but he was composed, smart, conservative, made good decisions and was dynamic as a runner. Last season expectations were high for the Cowboys and Dak Prescott picked up where he left off early in the season but the Ezekiel Elliott suspension and the injury to Tyron Smith had catastrophic consequences that exposed a lot of Dak’s deficiencies. In 2018 the Cowboys front office made a concerted effort to make the offense more “Dak friendly” in order to build an offense suited to their young franchise quarterback. What has become evident early on this season, is that they have failed miserably to accomplish that.
What did the Dallas Cowboys front office do wrong? First of all, let’s start with the coaching. There is a large contingent of Cowboys supporters that wanted Garrett fired years ago but after failing to build upon the successful 2016 season combined with the playoff failures it seemed that his time had finally come. When it became clear that Garrett would return in 2018 many believed that the Cowboys would then seek to replace offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. It would make perfect sense since Linehan was hired with Romo as the starting QB and now they could bring in a fresh offensive mind to help develop Dak Prescott and design an offense suited to his strengths. But no, the Cowboys decided to stick it out with Linehan. Instead the coaching changes came at the position level. Kellen Moore was hired as the new QB coach, Paul Alexander as the new OL coach, Sanjay Laal the new WR coach and Doug Nussmeier as the new TE coach. Those decisions have not worked out for the most part. It was risky to hire Dak Prescott’s former backup who had no prior experience instead of a known commodity and so far it has not looked like a good decision. The once dominant offensive line has played poorly, especially in pass protection. There are some new faces and and All Pro center Travis Frederick is out but the OL are being coached entirely differently then they were under their previous OL coaches. The saying “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” is a most fitting way to sum up my feelings on that particular move. Sanjay Laal was brought in as a “route running guru” and with his influence Cowboy fans were led to believe that there would be wide receivers getting open all over the field and that has simply not been the case. Although that may be unfair to Laal as there is an entirely different personnel he was had to work with (more on that to come).
Coaching is of course important but probably not as important as personnel. I mentioned that the the offensive line has undergone a few changes since 2016 when they were the most dominant group in the league but nothing like the WR’s and TE’s. Part of the plan to make the Cowboys offense “Dak friendly” was to cut the teams best WR Dez Bryant and instead of replacing him with another #1 stud receiver the Cowboys chose to bring in a group of youngsters such as rookie Michael Gallup and some 2nd and 3rd tier free agents like Allen Hurns, Tavon Austin and Deonte Thompson. That was a risky decision and opposite to what most teams with young QB’s are doing in the NFL. Most other teams are taking advantage of the fact that they have a young QB still on their rookie contract and are loading up their offenses with weapons. It is what the Eagles did with Carson Wentz, what the Rams are doing with Jarrod Goff and what the Bears and Chiefs are doing with Mitch Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes. Once these young QB’s prove themselves and get their big contracts then franchises will start to be more frugal such as with Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers and Tom Brady and the Patriots. The Cowboys were unable to follow this model thanks to poor salary cap management the past few years. The Cowboys had hoped that with the influence of route running guru Sanjay Laal they would have multiple guys get open and not need a true #1 WR. Thus far that plan has been an abject failure. There is no one that commands special attention or double coverage and none of the Cowboys receivers have given teams a reason to do so. It is not all on the receivers though. There are a lot of new faces so lack of chemistry could be cited but in reality Dak has not looked very good. It may be poor play calling, poor pass blocking and it may be the inability of the WR’s to catch contested balls that have played a part but Dak Prescott has not been getting the ball out at the right time and has missed on many throws. There is no doubt that his confidence is low and opposing teams are showing no fear which allows them to be aggressive. To make matters worse, Prescott lost his safety valve when Jason Witten retired so there appears to be no one that Dak really trusts out there other than Ezekiell Elliott. Elliott, who is the teams leading receiver, has become the entire offense and every team that plays the Cowboys knows it. If they can shut down Zeke, they are able to shut down the Cowboys.
The Cowboys are now 5 games into the 2018 season and with a record of 2-3 it appears more and more likely that they in fact will not make the playoffs. If the Dallas Cowboys continue on this current path , does that mean the Dak Prescott is not the next franchise QB? There is still hope for him. He is still young and while he may not be the an elite passer like many of the other young start QB’s currently in the league he has some intangibles that make him a quality franchise quarterback. He has demonstrated great leadership as soon as he took over for Romo in 2016. He has shown that he can manage the game and make good albeit conservative decisions. He is accountable, never blaming coaches or teammates or referees. He also appears to be a guy with great character. Most importantly he wants to be better. He works hard to improve himself as a player. He has made the conscious decision to work towards improving his mechanics and his footwork. Sometimes in order to improve a player may struggle at first but be better for it in the long run. Hopefully that will be the case with Prescott. Maybe if the Cowboys do miss the playoffs, Garrett and Linehan will be replaced with a some bright young offensive minds who can help develop Dak into the QB that many believe he can be.
But what if the Dallas Cowboys are able to turn this thing around? It is possible that with a little luck the Cowboys can generate a few wins, gain confidence and figure things out going forward. Surely Dak Prescott would break the bank on his next contract and Garrett would definitely keep his job then. Would that scenario be better or worse for the future Dallas Cowboys? That is a question that probably does not need answering. The outlook is quite bleak right now. The offensive struggles have been well documented and although the defense has played exceptionally well, they have not been able to generate many big plays. When the defense finally started to make some of the those big plays against Houston this past Sunday, they were able to give the offense multiple opportunities to win the game. The offense responded by squandering those opportunities and were unable to finish off a team that practically handed them the game on a silver platter. The likely scenario is that indeed the Dallas Cowboys will miss the playoffs again this season. If that does happen, the Jason Garrett era may finally be over and the Cowboys front office will have to decide if they still wish to offer Dak Prescott the lucrative contract that he is in line to collect soon. When that time comes regardless of what you or I think it is Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys who will have to answer the question..Is Dak Prescott a franchise QB?
All statistics and data obtained and verified from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
*Photo by Kieth Allison (c) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode