From 1982 through 1996, the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers combined to win eight of 15 Super Bowl championships. Two franchises delivered dynasties on the backs of Hall of Fame quarterbacks like Steve Young, Joe Montana, and Troy Aikman, charging into battle for NFC supremacy three straight years during the ’90s.
A generation has passed since those glory days. It’s now been 26 years since either team captured the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Even still, the history between these two teams provides extra intrigue surrounding a Sunday night matchup with a bid to the NFC Championship Game at stake. Adding to that drama is the fact that the 49ers eliminated the Cowboys at home last year by virtue of a 23-17 decision in the NFC Wild Card Round. This will be the ninth playoff matchup between Cowboys and 49ers (Dallas leads 5-3), tied for the most between teams in the Super Bowl era. games that include the 49ers’ 23-17 NFC Wild Card Round victory last year.
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will face a quarterback who was still in college during their playoff matchup last year. Iowa State’s Brock Purdy has gone from Mr. Irrelevant into one of the NFL’s fairy-tale stories of the season. Purdy, a third-stringer pressed into action after an injury to Jimmy Garoppolo, has delivered on a Pro Bowl-caliber level for the past two months. He has led the 49ers to 7 straight victories and that includes a 332-yard, three-touchdown thumping of the Seattle Seahawks last weekend, a game in which San Francisco outscored the Seahawks 25-6 in the second half. That gives the 49ers an NFL-leading 11th straight victory overall. A 12th victory would earn the 49ers a second straight tip to the NFC Championship Game to face the number one overall seed Philadelphia Eagles. It would also give San Francisco bragging rights in a Cowboys rivalry head coach Kyle Shanahan is happy to be a part of refueling.
There are three big question marks which are likely to determine how this game might unfold:
1) Can Dak Prescott outplay Brock Purdy?
Writing that sentence would have been unthinkable just three months ago. Prescott’s return from injury is part of what sparked this Cowboys to become one of the top offenses in the league on route to a second straight 12 win season. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy didn’t even throw an NFL pass until Oct. 23. But what a ride it has been for Purdy since early December. Including the playoffs, he’s thrown 16 touchdowns and four interceptions during the last seven games, winning all of them while posting the highest passer rating in the NFL. Against the Seahawks last week, he averaged a whopping 11.1 yards per attempt while posting MVP-type numbers during the second half: 9-for-11 for 185 yards, two touchdowns, and no sacks or turnovers. Dak Prescott has played well but has struggled with turnovers during that stretch. He led the league in interceptions despite only playing 12 games. Some were a result of bad luck but he has also taken risks and made some poor decisions that have not been typical of his play throughout his career. In last week’s wildcard victory over Tampa Bay, Dak did not turn the ball over for the first time in 7 games and Cowboys fans hope that he has overcome any mental obstacles that may have resulted from the previous turnover streak.
On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys defense should not fazed by Purdy’s success. Indeed, the Cowboys’ D finished the regular season fifth in scoring (20.1 ppg) and created a league-high 33 takeaways. That propensity showed up again on Monday night with a crucial (and rare) interception of Tom Brady in the end zone that snuffed out any momentum for Tampa Bay. Towards the end of the season the Cowboys defense had fallen off a bit after suffering a few key injuries, especially in the secondary. The return of Leighton Vander Esch, Jonathan Hankins, and the signing of free agent corner Xavier Rhodes seemed to have provided a boost to a unit that was dominant early on in the season.
2) Which team’s run game will be more dominant?
The 49ers hit the jackpot in their trade for Christian McCaffrey, stepping up their already impressive run game to a whole other level. McCaffrey was unstoppable against the Seahawks last Saturday, rushing for 119 yards at nearly eight yards per carry and adding a touchdown catch in the 41-23 rout. Overall, San Francisco was eighth in the league in rushing offense during the regular season, averaging 138.8 yards per game. And it’s not just McCaffrey either who can do damage on the ground. The 49ers are loaded with weapons, have an elite offensive line, an elite tight end George Kittle and All-Pro full back Kyle Juszczyk who are excellent blockers, and a head coach in Kyle Shanahan who knows how to attack defenses. The Cowboys defense has struggled at times this season against teams that can run the ball so they have to make sure that does not happen again this week.
On the other side, Dallas finished the season ninth in rushing offense, right behind San Francisco with their dynamic duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard leading the way. The Cowboys run game is far less complicated than the 49ers and is contingent on game flow and the Cowboys offensive line winning at the line of scrimmage. The Elliott-Pollard combination was ineffective in the playoff matchup last year (16 carries for 45 yards). An unimpressive 2.8 yards per carry didn’t get the job done then and won’t this year either. The 49ers defense is no slouch against the run either. They finished second against the run this season holding teams to 77.7 yards per game and only 3.4 yards per rushing attempt. If they force the Cowboys to play behind the chains, the 49ers defense can wreak havoc with their pass rush and ability to create turnovers as they lead the NFL in interceptions this season. 49ers defensive player of the year candidate Nick Bosa led league with 18.5 sacks and he is also elite against the run. For the Cowboys, the onus is on Elliott, Pollard, and the Cowboys’ offensive line to prove they can be more effective running the ball this time around.
3) Can Brett Maher rebound?
In one of the more bizarre twists in NFL playoff history, Maher became the first player to miss four straight extra points last week. It was the only outlier in an otherwise flawless takedown of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night. After earning the full-time placekicking job this season, Maher had been reliable until that point. He cast aside the doubts of many Cowboys fans that were all too familiar with his tendency to be inconsistent in the kicking game. Just as he had earned back their trust by connecting on a career-high 90.6 percent of his field goal attempts (including 100% inside 40 yards), he inexplicably couldn’t make his PAT’s last week. Luckily for the Cowboys, the game was not close enough for those misses to factor into the result. It would not be ideal for the same thing to happen again this week as playoff history is often decided on the fate of a single kick. The Cowboys have publicly pledged their support in Maher this past week but the front office was clearly rattled as they signed free agent kicker Tristan Vizcaino to their practice squad. Replacing the kicker at this stage of the season is less than ideal and Maher reportedly had a good week of practice so the Cowboys are crossing their fingers and hoping that one bad week hasn’t given Maher a case of the Yips. He may get an opportunity to make a big kick and make Cowboys fans completely forget last weeks debacle.
Final Analysis and game prediction:
This game will come down to who controls the line of scrimmage. The 49ers are loaded on both sides of the ball but the Cowboys have hopefully learned from the beatdown they received from the 49ers last season. Brock Purdy is still a rookie and he hasn’t been challenged much during his present win streak. Look for the cowboys to rattle Purdy and force him to turn the ball over. The Cowboys have to get off to a better start on offense and score early so they can put pressure on the 49ers. Dak Prescott is coming off a huge victory last week which should boost his confidence and erase any concerns that “interceptions are in his DNA” as was pointed out by Emmanuel Acho on Fox Sports 1 show Speak For Yourself. This game will be close but the Cowboys should pull away late in the game and get their revenge from last year.
Final Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 28 San Francisco 49ers 17
*Photo by Joe Glorioso https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode